Joe Terranova, Senior Managing Director for Virtus Investment Partners, joins CNBC's "Halftime Report" to explain why he's buying the Treasury Bond ETF.
It's easy to make a case against US Treasuries. Yet, from a technical perspective, there's a lot to like. What message is the “mystery” MoneyShow Chart of the Day sending?
A 40-60 bond-equity allocation model, or other fixed allocation models, could miss critical market junctures. This is why I use a dynamic allocation method based on bonds' valuations relative to other assets. The current spread between SP500 CAPE yield and long-term treasury rates is toward the thinner end of the historical spectrum.
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF remains a STRONG BUY due to signs of economic slowdown, moderating inflation, and favorable bond market conditions. Recent economic data points to slowing growth, with lower consumer confidence, decreased personal spending, and higher jobless claims. Capital market yields dropped significantly, driven by increased recession discounting and a moderate reduction in term premia.
The final trades of the day with CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders.
The TLT offers investors exposure to a portfolio of bonds with a longer-than-average maturity and duration, and currently yields 4.6%. The current yield is above the likely rate of nominal GDP growth over the long term, making the TLT a strong buy-and-hold investment. It also has the potential to rise strongly should the stock market roll over, where a 1pp decline in yields could net TLT holders 20% in total return terms.
4 Macro Scenarios Holding Me Back From TLT (For Now)
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF has found support since Trump took office. Negatives were priced in but have not unfolded. Some policies could be positive for TLT and this article looks at four important drivers.
The first quarter of 2025 is already underway, and investors across the market are probably wondering where the best place to put their capital to work is. With this in mind, a few economic and fundamental themes will point out a clear path to a particular area of the market that poses a potential gold mine for the coming months.
Since the Federal Reserve began cutting its benchmark interest rate last fall, shorter-term bonds have not provided much appeal to everyday investors.
First, I would like to express to my colleagues, friends and followers: May the Year of the Snake guide your endeavors to great heights.
Interest rate risk remains significant for investors in 2025, especially in ETFs like the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, due to rising inflation. Inflation swaps indicate market concerns, with one and two-year swaps climbing to dangerously high levels, suggesting inflation is not under control. Rising oil prices pose a risk to Treasury rates, potentially leading to higher yields and lower prices for the TLT ETF.