Tech stocks have underperformed recently due to a shift in investor sentiment, prompting a rotation into other asset classes. Leveraged ETFs like TQQQ offer high potential but come with significant risks, including volatility and tracking error. Despite TQQQ's recent 30% gain, I am downgrading it to hold as other asset classes are expected to outperform tech stocks.
The ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) ETF has performed well over the years, beating the Nasdaq 100 index by far. Data shows that the fund's total return in the past five years stood at 327% compared to the Nasdaq 100's 157%.
TQQQ leverages daily moves in QQQ by 3x, and is best held when QQQ trends strongly higher with low volatility. Despite QQQ's new all-time high post-election, it lagged IWM and DJI, indicating potential continued underperformance. Many leading QQQ stocks remain below their highs, suggesting a lack of strong trend, making TQQQ less ideal now.
ProShares UltraPro QQQ offers a leveraged bet on Mag 7 stocks, benefiting from AI advancements, with a focus on capital appreciation. The ETF has delivered impressive annual returns of 42.60% since its inception in 2010, heavily over-weighting IT and AI-focused companies. TQQQ's top 10 holdings, including Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft, represent 50.8% of the fund, making it highly concentrated and risky.
The ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF (QQQ) stock has done well this year. It has risen by 42% this year and by 100.2% in the last 12 months.
TQQQ is a 3x leveraged ETF that tracks the Nasdaq-100. When timed right, it gives investors the opportunity to generate excellent returns over a very short time period. Despite the potentially high risk, I therefore rate TQQQ a buy if investors manage risk accordingly. In this piece, I will break down how I am approaching this challenge and what potential and existing investors might need to look out for.
The ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) and ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ) ETFs moved in different directions on the first trading day of September. SQQQ surged by over 9.15% while the TQQQ fund crashed by a similar amount.
ProShares UltraPro QQQ may have peaked in July. Any acceleration in technology sector selling during the autumn will push this 3x leveraged security into oversized percentage losses. The summer's huge bearish shift in trading momentum is worrisome, with a clear vacuum of buyers in the Big Tech names appearing during late July and early August. Ease-of-Movement indicator swings deep into red territory are screaming investors sell technology-related ETFs on the rebound.
Leveraged ETFs are risky due to beta slippage and potential value erosion over time. However, SEC warnings about holding leveraged securities for longer than one day appear to have softened in recent years. Any trend is the friend of the leveraged ETF/ETN investor, while oscillation is the enemy.
Analyzing hidden costs of investing in leveraged ETFs through mathematical basis. Comparison of theoretical frictionless leveraged ETF returns with actual returns to identify embedded costs. Observations on decay in leveraged ETFs, impact of rebalancing, and potential arbitrage opportunities.
Early investors in this tech-focused fund have made tons of money. Is it still a good long-term investment?
ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF aims to replicate the performance of QQQ by 3x daily, making it risky and volatile. Despite the risks, it could be a great option for those seeking substantial capital appreciation through a simple, more hands-on approach to managing TQQQ's inherent risks. While there are concerns around sequence risk, beta erosion, and the ability for the fund's wild performance to induce investor mistakes, the upside is too enticing to pass on entirely.