US stocks have rebounded sharply, with QQQ up nearly 30% since April lows, fueled by renewed 'buy the dip' sentiment. Tariff concerns have eased, and investor greed is returning as markets anticipate continued gains and clear skies ahead. Despite the rally, I believe now is the time to exercise caution and not get swept up in the prevailing optimism.
The ProShares UltraPro QQQ (NASDAQ:TQQQ), iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (NASDAQ:ETHA), and VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SMH) are all soaring today.
The ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF has seen a significant valuation drop due to market turmoil, presenting a buying opportunity for long-term investors focused on AI-driven tech growth. TQQQ is attractive due to its overweight in 'magnificent 7' stocks like Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia, all poised for AI-related gains. TSMC just reported a 42% Y/Y gain in its top line amid a continual boom in AI spending. Gartner also projects massive gen-AI spending in AI.
We apply leverage in a dynamic and disciplined way to achieve aggressive growth. The ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF is our fund of choice for leverage exposure. Despite recent corrections, I remain on the sideline due to the combination of high valuation risk and high VIX index.
The Nasdaq made a new all-time high this week, and it could be a good time to hold leveraged products like TQQQ. Despite red flags, such as the "Mag 7" underperformance, strong economic fundamentals and earnings growth drive optimism. TQQQ offers high rewards but comes with significant risks, including negative compounding and the potential for sharp reversals.
The world's largest leveraged ETF – ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) – is celebrating its 15th anniversary. As of February 2025, it has accumulated over $25 billion in assets.
When I last covered ProShares UltraPro QQQ Fund, I rated it a hold because its leverage combined with the underlying index's steep valuation made it risky. I did not rate it a sell because while NASDAQ-100 stocks were pricey at the time, they were not yet into outrageous overvaluation territory. Today, 'outrageous overvaluation' is arguably present within the large QQQ components.
Leveraged ETFs like TQQQ perform poorly during oscillating markets, and I expect significant fluctuations this year, given a skittish investment climate. In 2024, TQQQ holders pretty much got off scot free while other leveraged ETFs like SOXL suffered value impairment. Upside risk exists if indices trend steadily higher, but I recommend high-delta put options to minimize potential losses.
Tech stocks have underperformed recently due to a shift in investor sentiment, prompting a rotation into other asset classes. Leveraged ETFs like TQQQ offer high potential but come with significant risks, including volatility and tracking error. Despite TQQQ's recent 30% gain, I am downgrading it to hold as other asset classes are expected to outperform tech stocks.
The ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) ETF has performed well over the years, beating the Nasdaq 100 index by far. Data shows that the fund's total return in the past five years stood at 327% compared to the Nasdaq 100's 157%.
TQQQ leverages daily moves in QQQ by 3x, and is best held when QQQ trends strongly higher with low volatility. Despite QQQ's new all-time high post-election, it lagged IWM and DJI, indicating potential continued underperformance. Many leading QQQ stocks remain below their highs, suggesting a lack of strong trend, making TQQQ less ideal now.
ProShares UltraPro QQQ offers a leveraged bet on Mag 7 stocks, benefiting from AI advancements, with a focus on capital appreciation. The ETF has delivered impressive annual returns of 42.60% since its inception in 2010, heavily over-weighting IT and AI-focused companies. TQQQ's top 10 holdings, including Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft, represent 50.8% of the fund, making it highly concentrated and risky.