Vistra has shed nearly 30% over the past year while one prominent Wall Street firm just slapped a target on it that implies triple-digit gains.
Vistra's discounted valuation, strong ROE and capital returns offset earnings estimate cuts, debt and power-price risks after a six-month stock decline.
Vistra is evolving from a cyclical merchant generator to a diversified, contract-driven energy platform with improved earnings visibility. Long-term nuclear contracts with AWS and Meta, plus the Cogentrix acquisition, are expected to drive nearly half of VST's EBITDA and support capital investment. My base case targets $8.1B adjusted EBITDA and a 10.5% FCFbG yield, implying a value of ~$180/share and supporting a Buy rating.
VST's second-quarter earnings beat estimates as higher pricing and Lotus assets lift EBITDA, while derivative losses pressure revenues and net income.
Vistra's Q2 call keeps 2026 guidance intact as data center demand supports long-term growth, while softer ERCOT pricing clouds its 2027 outlook.
Although the revenue and EPS for Vistra (VST) give a sense of how its business performed in the quarter ended June 2026, it might be worth considering how some key metrics compare with Wall Street estimates and the year-ago numbers.
Vistra NYSE: VST reported second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1.767 billion, up more than 30% from about $1.35 billion a year earlier, as higher generation earnings and continued retail strength lifted results. The company reaffirmed its full-year financial outlook and said it remains on track for another record year in 2026.
Vistra Corp. remains a hold as strong adjusted EBITDA growth is offset by declining sales and rising operating costs. VST's valuation has improved significantly, with PE dropping from 76x to 23.8x on accelerated earnings, but PB remains high at 15x. Strategic growth drivers include the Cogentrix acquisition, nuclear power agreements with AWS and Meta, and a new AI-focused partnership with Nvidia.
Vistra Corp. (VST) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
VST heads into Q2 with sharply higher revenue and EPS estimates, backed by clean-power demand, hedging, nuclear assets and Lotus contributions.
Vistra (VST) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.
In the closing of the recent trading day, Vistra Corp. (VST) stood at $148.64, denoting a -5.37% move from the preceding trading day.