Relying solely on past performance for Emerging Markets can be misleading when making portfolio decisions. Comparing Emerging Markets to US Total Market indices highlights significant performance and risk differences. Factor analysis tools reveal that Emerging Markets offer several benefits like equity-bond like correlation factors and periods of upside.
VWO ETF, with its low expense ratio and high dividend yield, serves as a benchmark for analyzing emerging markets. Emerging markets' performance is complex, influenced by factors like the DXY index, Trump's tariffs, and Powell's monetary decisions. The Dollar Index continues its strong upward trend, driven by Trump's fiscal policy and the Fed's monetary strategy.
Including emerging markets in your portfolio is sensible due to their lower correlation with the US stock market, enhancing risk-adjusted returns. VWO is a solid choice for EM exposure, offering low expense ratios, high liquidity, and broad diversification across sectors and countries. Despite historically lower returns, EM's unique correlation patterns can improve portfolio performance, especially during market downturns and specific periods of outperformance.
The Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF invests in stocks of companies in emerging markets like China, Brazil, Taiwan, and South Africa. I see Chinese equity exposure as too risky at this juncture given trade implications from an aggressive tariff policy under a Trump administration. While I see merit to being a bull on the Indian economy, the valuation of that country's equities is too rich for my taste.
I am upgrading my rating on VWO from hold to buy due to improved fundamentals and technicals, despite questions about China's stimulus impact. VWO has shown strong performance, returning 20.7% since late last year, with a robust B+ ETF Grade and a high dividend yield of 2.55%. The ETF is well-diversified across sectors and has a favorable valuation with a price-to-earnings ratio under 14 and a PEG ratio barely above 1.
VWO, the largest and one of the more cost-efficient EM ETFs, but lagged global markets over the past year, by generating returns of only mid-single-digits. VWO's dominant regions - China and India, which account for 51% of the portfolio, are likely to benefit from better consumption trends, even as the dollar drops to 7 month lows. EM stocks look oversold relative to their global counterparts and can be picked up at cheap valuations.
International and emerging market equities currently trade with extremely cheap valuations and somewhat above-average yields. VWO is the largest emerging market equities ETF in the market. Although there is nothing significantly wrong with the fund, it compares unfavorably to EYLD in several key metrics.