IBD's Alexis Garcia and Ed Carson preview key upcoming earnings reports from Lumentum Holdings, Rocket Lab and AMD. Check out our daily newsletter!
AMD heads into Q1'26 earnings on May 5 with a $9.8B revenue guide and AI chip demand amid stiff competition from Nvidia, Intel and Broadcom.
Long term, I remain bullish on Advanced Micro Devices, Inc., and I still own the stock after a 51% return since I bought the dip earlier this month. That said, I am not adding to my AMD position (which is 1.8% of my NLV) before the Q1 earnings release due to the risk of another double-digit selloff. AMD's Q4 had one-off tailwinds from China. Q1 MI308 China sales are guided far below Q4, while local chipmakers already hold a meaningful share of the market.
As the dust settles from a high-stakes week of “Magnificent Seven” earnings, a subtle shift is occurring under the hood of the semiconductor sector. While Nvidia remains the undisputed monarch of the AI era, its stock faced a rare moment of cooling as investors digested a gargantuan spending outlook from Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon.
Beyond analysts' top-and-bottom-line estimates for Advanced Micro (AMD), evaluate projections for some of its key metrics to gain a better insight into how the business might have performed for the quarter ended March 2026.
AMD is experiencing a CPU-driven supercycle, with EPYC server demand and supply constraints signaling early-cycle upside. AMD's structural growth is underpinned by CPUs becoming integral to AI infrastructure, with projected revenues rising from ~$34.6B in 2025 to ~$68B in 2027. Supply constraints through 2026 and the upcoming Venice EPYC and MI450 launches position AMD for potential exponential earnings and ASP growth.
The semiconductor trade is still being powered by one enormous number as global chip sales are on track to reach $1 trillion $1 trillion in 2026, after a 25.6% jump in 2025. The hyperscalers, led by Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta, are projected to spend more than $600 billion this year on AI-related infrastructure.
Chart 2: TSMC HPC vs Nvidia Data Center Revenues TSMC's revenues reflect the timing of chip production and shipment, while Nvidia's revenues reflect end-market demand.
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. is upgraded to a Buy, while Intel Corporation is raised to Hold, reflecting shifting CPU demand in AI infrastructure. INTC's Q1 2026 earnings highlight CPUs' foundational role in AI inference, with both companies positioned to benefit from this structural demand tailwind. Between these two leaders, AMD is even better positioned than Intel to profit from this tailwind due to its current product lineups and coherent R&D efforts to maintain the performance.
Broadcom's AI-driven semiconductor surge: Q1 AI revenue rose 106% YoY, Tomahawk 6 ships at scale, and the Meta chip pact targets multi-GW capacity.
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. stands to benefit from the agentic AI-driven CPU supercycle, with high-core-count EPYC CPUs and memory-first MI400 accelerators targeting orchestration and memory bottlenecks. Q1 revenue guidance is $9.8B (32% Y/Y growth), with potential upside to $10.3B; data center revenue momentum and EPS could exceed consensus if CPU demand mirrors Intel's surge. Valuation is stretched at 77.5x P/E, but multi-year backlog, margin expansion, and 35%+ revenue CAGR by 2027 could justify forward multiples of 27–33x.
The market's latest artificial intelligence panic says more about investor psychology than it does about the future of AI.