Amazon.com, Inc. has underperformed its hyperscaler and retail peers over the past five years, despite strong operational and financial growth. AWS generates 57% of AMZN's operating income with a 35% margin, yet its value is suppressed by consolidation with the lower-margin e-commerce segment. I believe a spinoff of AWS could unlock substantial shareholder value, as AWS alone could command a $1.37T valuation.
I believe last Friday's Amazon.com, Inc. selloff had little to do with the $200B CapEx guide for 2026 or the miss on Q4 EPS results and operating income guidance. The AMZN misses look overstated because $2.4B of one-off charges and AI buildout depreciation pressured operating income. Excluding those, Q4 operating income would have been $27.4B versus $25.0B reported. In my view, AWS is the core pillar of the bull case. Revenue beat consensus at $35.6B, growth is reaccelerating, and backlog hit $244B (40% YOY), supported by new agreements.
Amazon.com, Inc. transformed its Anthropic investment into a strategic advantage, positioning AWS as the premier enterprise AI cloud for Claude workloads. AMZN's custom chip initiatives and deep Anthropic integration drive AWS growth, with Q4 AWS revenue up 24% YoY to $35.6B. Anthropic's Claude, especially Opus 4.5 and 4.6, now leads enterprise LLMs, capturing developer mindshare and outperforming OpenAI in coding and benchmarks.
Amazon shares dropped 6% after announcing a $200 billion FY26 capex plan Friday, far exceeding expectations and hyperscaler peers. AMZN's capex surge is justified by AWS' 40% backlog growth to $244 billion and robust 24% segment revenue growth in Q4 FY25. Despite anticipated negative free cash flow in FY26, AMZN's $101.2 billion cash balance and strong operating cash flow support its aggressive investment.
Amazon's recent 15% post-earnings sell-off was driven by concerns over elevated AI-related CapEx. High capital expenditure is the necessary infrastructure spend to secure dominance in the next decade of cloud and generative AI. The company could currently be undervalued by 100%+, according to our analysis.
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN ) briefly went below $200 after reporting Q4 2025 earnings.
Amazon is executing a $200B capex plan to maintain AWS's AI and cloud dominance, despite near-term stock pressure from upfront costs. AWS's $244B backlog, rapid revenue ramp, and custom chip strategy underpin strong earnings visibility and margin expansion potential, even amid aggressive spending. AMZN trades at 15.8x cash flow, well below historical norms, with consensus projecting 27% annual growth and accelerating EPS through 2028.
Amazon is committing a massive $200B in AI CapEx for 2026, outpacing hyperscaler peers and reinforcing AWS's leadership ambitions. AWS backlog surged 40% YoY to $244B, with management emphasizing agentic AI as the next growth inflection and existential competitive threat. Custom silicon initiatives like Trainium2 and Trainium3 are central to lowering AI inference costs, aiming to secure AWS's platform-of-choice status for enterprise AI agents.
Big Tech stocks began the new trading week mostly flat in premarket trading Monday after a week that saw more than $1 trillion wiped from their market caps. Microsoft, Oracle, Meta, Alphabet and Amazon were all largely flat in early premarket trading, with Nvidia slightly down after rebounding on Friday.
Amazon stock (NASDAQ: AMZN) has retreated 15% over the past month, currently trading at $210. This slide was largely fueled by the Feb. 5 earnings report, where the company's $200 billion capital expenditure forecast for 2026 caught analysts off guard.
Amazon tumbled after its 4Q FY2025 earnings, driven by concerns over overspending tied to its $200B capex outlook and negative FY2026 FCF, which is overdone. AMZN's FY2026 capex outlook implies a capex-to-total-revenue ratio of 25%, up from 18.5% in 4Q, but still significantly below the 40%–50% ratios implied by other hyperscalers' capex outlooks. AWS growth accelerated in 4Q, and management's focus on monetizing its $200 billion data center investment suggests that growth will continue to accelerate in FY2026.
Amazon delivered a solid fourth-quarter earnings report. But the company's aggressive growth investments threw investors into a tizzy.