Barings BDC: Rising Concerns, But Dividend Should Remain Safe Near-Term (Downgrade)
Barings BDC's dividend appears safe for the near-term, but declining financials and economic uncertainty warrant caution for income investors. Recent earnings showed net investment income fell below dividend coverage, with credit quality and leverage metrics also weakening. Despite attractive discount to NAV and defensive portfolio moves, I recommend waiting for financial and NAV stability before buying.
Golub Capital BDC's NAV, Valuation, And Dividend Versus 11 BDC Peers - Part 1 (Includes Recommendations As Of 5/30/2025)
Part 1 of this article compares Golub Capital BDC's recent quarterly change in NAV, quarterly and trailing 12-month economic return, NII, and current valuation to 11 BDC peers. Part 1 also performs a comparative analysis of each company's investment portfolio as of 12/31/2024 and 3/31/2025. This includes an updated percentage of investments on non-accrual status. I also provide a list of the other BDC stocks I currently believe are undervalued (a buy recommendation), overvalued (a sell recommendation), and appropriately valued (a hold recommendation).
Warning To All BDC Investors
I am increasingly cautious on BDCs due to rising non-accruals, weaker earnings, and looser underwriting amid intense competition for private credit deals. Elevated interest rates are suppressing BDC valuations and making it harder for borrowers to service debt, leading to fewer quality investment opportunities. Dividend coverage is weakening across many BDCs, with higher non-accruals and PIK income threatening the sustainability of distributions investors rely on.
My Top 2 Buy And Hold Forever BDC Picks
BDCs are high-risk assets. It means that buy and hold forever strategy might be suboptimal. Yet, there are exceptions.
BDC Weekly Review: Performance Divergence But No Serious Weakness
We take a look at the action in business development companies through the fourth week of May and highlight some of the key themes we are watching. BDC sector pulled back 2% this week, but remains up 2.5% month-to-date; valuations are about 5% below historic averages. Despite headlines of credit stress, BDC portfolios' interest income continues to offset markdowns and non-accruals, supporting solid total NAV returns.
Why BDC Bulls Should Stay Away From BIZD
There are only 2 ETF options to invest in the BDC segment, and BIZD is one of them. Even though it is the largest and most liquid alternative, it has some notable drawbacks. In this article, I elaborate in more detail on why BIZD is, in my view, a suboptimal choice for investors, who want to go long the BDC land.
Barings BDC: Dividend Cut Risk Is High, I'm Avoiding This One
Barings BDC is a well-established vehicle with one of the longest track records in the sector. The portfolio quality is solid, and certainly better than what could be implied from the 20% discount to NAV. Yet, the base dividend seems unsustainable or at least with no material margin of safety.
Goldman Sachs BDC: Excessive NAV Discount
Goldman Sachs BDC delivered weaker-than-expected Q1'25 net investment income amid a shrinking portfolio and persistent non-accrual issues. The BDC's non-accrual percentage improved to 1.9% Q/Q and Q1'25 was the third consecutive quarter of improving balance sheet quality. Goldman Sachs BDC has changed its dividend setup, however, and has more payment flexibility going forward.
Fidus Investment: Solid Q1 Earnings Indicate Resilience For This BDC
FDUS offers a strong 11.2% dividend yield with solid coverage, making it attractive for income-focused investors seeking reliable distributions. The portfolio is well-diversified, primarily in secured debt, and has outperformed peers on non-accrual rates despite macroeconomic headwinds. Recent earnings were solid, with stable net investment income and increased new investment activity, supported by healthy liquidity and prudent management.
Crescent Capital BDC: NAV Decline Continues Following Q1 Earnings
Crescent Capital BDC trades at a significant discount to NAV and offers a high 12.5% yield, but recent performance and total returns have been weak. Rising non-accruals, declining earnings, and weakening distribution coverage raise concerns about portfolio health and dividend sustainability. While the portfolio is diversified and focused on first lien, floating rate debt, higher interest rates are pressuring borrowers and increasing risks.
Crescent Capital BDC: Latest Quarter A Clear Sign Of A Weakening Economy (Rating Downgrade)
I'm downgrading Crescent Capital from buy to hold due to weakening fundamentals and rising economic uncertainty. Recent earnings showed sequential declines in total and net investment income, with increasing non-accruals and NAV erosion. CCAP's leverage is above peer average, raising risk, and the probability of a dividend cut is higher if economic conditions worsen.
BDC Weekly Review: NII Is Stabilizing
We take a look at the action in business development companies through the third week of May and highlight some of the key themes we are watching. BDCs have rebounded strongly, with most lenders up for the month and sector valuations approaching long-term averages, signaling renewed investor confidence. Key income headwinds from Fed rate cuts are behind us; leverage and lending spreads are rising, supporting net investment income (NII) stability.
