BDC Weekly Review: Private Credit Will Be $40 Trillion In 5 Years, Says Apollo
We take a look at the Q3 numbers from the Barings BDC. Barings BDC trades at a 14% discount to book, offers a 10.6% dividend yield, and has a stable NAV over the last few years. Net investment income fell 9% year-over-year, but dividend coverage remains strong at 110%.
Hercules Capital's premium to NAV is justified by its strong two-decade performance, technology focus, and potential for record-breaking growth in 2025. The BDC's high recurring interest income and supplemental dividends make it a reliable choice for passive income investors. Hercules Capital's technology-oriented investments, including equity stakes in successful companies, offer significant long-term upside potential.
We take a look at the action in business development companies through the second week of December and highlight some of the key themes we are watching. BDCs were flat this week with CSWC and PSEC underperforming; average valuations have risen slightly above the 5-year average. Continuing themes in the BDC sector include performance persistence and valuation compression.
In December 2023, I issued my first relatively bearish article on GSBD. The argument was that GSBD lacked the financial firepower to grow. Since then, GSBD has underperformed the BDC market by ~20%.
Fidus Investment offers an attractive 8.4% forward yield with supplemental dividends, making it a solid choice for income-focused investors despite lacking upside catalysts. The BDC's portfolio value crossed $1 billion, showing impressive growth and strong first-lien debt exposure, ensuring portfolio quality and safety. FDUS has maintained dividend safety with lower leverage, ample liquidity, and spillover income, despite a challenging economic backdrop and declining interest rates.
Truist raised the firm's price target on Belden to $148 from $136 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm reiterated a cautious semiconductor and artificial intelligence sector view, but is more constructive on Nvidia (NVDA) and Monolithic Power (MPWR) while more cautious on Tesla (TSLA). A new analysis suggests we may have additional downward pressure to estimates, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
We take a look at the action in business development companies through the first week of December and highlight some of the key themes we are watching. BDCs experienced a slight decline this week, but are up nearly 10% year-to-date. Wrapping up Q3 earnings: WHF had a -2% total NAV return with rising non-accruals, while BXSL posted a strong 3.2% total NAV return.
Oaktree Specialty Lending reported a $0.01 per share miss in net investment income for Q4, but the BDC managed to support its dividend with NII. Despite rising non-accrual percentages, the BDC's change in management fee structure is a positive. OCSL's first-lien strategy, with 82% of funds in senior secured first liens, supports its reputation as a stable dividend payer.
Belden (BDC) made it through our "Recent Price Strength" screen and could be a great choice for investors looking to make a profit from stocks that are currently on the move.
Private credit/BDC investments offer exposure to structural growth and a significant portfolio yield enhancement. Yet, we have to be extra careful of not falling into value traps and investing in unsustainable yields, which are abundant in the inherently risky sector. In this article, I share a BDC portfolio that has ~10.5% yield, healthier fundamentals than the average in the space, and, importantly, meaningful price appreciation potential.
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending is a newly IPO'd BDC with strong fundamentals, trading at a 4.3% discount to NAV. NCDL boasts a diversified portfolio, heavily weighted towards first-lien loans (90.6%), positioning it well for economic volatility. Solid balance sheet with no near-term debt maturities and a leverage ratio below the sector median, indicating potential for growth.