Lumen Technologies offers an asymmetric Buy setup after a 20% decline, with a strong downside floor and cheap upside optionality. LUMN's leverage is below 4x and falling, supported by a $13B PCF backlog and cost-cutting initiatives targeting ~$1B in annualized savings by 2027. EBITDA inflection is expected exiting 2026, with further upside from digital transformation and PCF monetization, though these drivers may take years to materialize.
Lumen Technologies, which has rejigged its business to a great extent since I last covered it in April 2022, has been outperforming its communication services peers by 7x over the past year. LUMN's forward FCF yield is poised to reach an impressive 15% by the end of this year, driven by robust PCF contract momentum and CAPEX discipline. Despite a doubling of the share price over the past year, LUMN trades at a compelling 6.18x forward EV/EBITDA, well below peers, with 300bps margin expansion projected by decade's end.
Lumen (LUMN) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock?
| Diversified Telecommunication Services Industry | Communication Services Sector | Kathleen E. Johnson CEO | XDUS Exchange | US5502411037 ISIN |
| US Country | 24,000 Employees | 9 Sep 2022 Last Dividend | 1 Apr 1999 Last Split | 15 Dec 1972 IPO Date |
Lumen Technologies, Inc., originally known as CenturyLink, Inc., rebranded in September 2020, signifying its evolution into a facilities-based technology and communications company. With a foundation year of 1968 and headquartered in Monroe, Louisiana, Lumen Technologies extends a vast suite of integrated products and services tailored for both business and residential customers across the United States and globally. The organization is structured into two primary segments: Business and Mass Markets, encompassing an array of offerings from high-speed broadband to complex managed solutions, all delivered under the Lumen, Quantum Fiber, and CenturyLink brands.