Samsung Electronics' fourth-generation high bandwidth memory or HBM3 chips have been cleared by Nvidia for use in its processors for the first time, three people briefed on the matter said.
Micron is positioned for a significant upswing as eFY25 HBM chips are sold out; I anticipate the firm will generate $21.5b in aEBITDA firmwide. I believe this recent sell-off post-earnings has created a good buying opportunity for investors seeking to take advantage of this cyclical upswing. Capacity for their HBM chips will begin to improve in 2027 with the Idaho fab bringing in meaningful production; the New York fab is expected to begin production in 2028.
Micron Technology reported FY2024 results and outlook, disappointing investors' high AI expectations after the June rally. We say load up on the pullback. Our positive outlook is based on our expectations of higher DRAM sales due to AI-driven demand for HBM and the arrival of AI PC in 2025. We expect hyper-demand from AI for HBM to put DRAM into shortage for the next 1-2 years, at least.
Micron announced fiscal Q3 earnings on June 26, but guidance was in-line with consensus, questioning the rationale for explosive share growth in the past three months. My analysis shows HBM market to grow from 4% to 15% of global advanced semiconductor packaging market by 2028, with Micron gaining share. I expect Micron's HBM capacity to increase from 5.6% in Q1 2024 to 14.0% in Q4 2025, positioning the company as the fastest growing in the DRAM oligopoly.
I am reiterating my Buy rating due to strong pricing dynamics and expected significant uplift in HBM revenues. The memory market is highly cyclical, with recent capacity constraints and strong demand leading to price increases and strong sales growth for Micron. Micron was late to the HBM market but is gaining share, and I believe the company is likely to beat on estimates in Q3 with compelling results and guidance.
Micron Technology is set to report earnings on June 26, 2024, with 26 positive and 1 negative EPS revision by analysts. MU is ramping up production of HBM3E and expects to see an increase in sales in e2h24 with strong tailwinds in eFY25. The Company should realize strong tailwinds driven by AI servers and the next refresh cycle for general compute servers with the release of HBM4E.
Samsung Electronics' latest high bandwidth memory (HBM) chips have yet to pass Nvidia's tests for use in the U.S. firm's AI processors due to heat and power consumption problems, three people briefed on the issues said.