The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (NASDAQ:IBIT) is having its first real bear market as a public fund.
I expect Bitcoin to bottom near $38k around September 2026, based on historical four-year price cycles. IBIT offers an accessible way to trade Bitcoin during key bull and bear cycles, with technicals currently signaling further downside risk. IBIT's weekly chart shows a potential bullish divergence, but I prioritize confirmation from BTC before calling a market bottom.
Spot bitcoin ETFs settled into a two-horse race almost immediately after the January 2024 SEC approval, and the top two contenders are iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (NASDAQ:IBIT) and Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (NYSEARCA:FBTC).
There is no free lunch in options. If you want downside protection, you either pay for it directly or sacrifice some upside potential to finance it.
As of June 9, 2026, after the market close, Bitcoin is down 29.3% year-to-date and trading at approximately $61,798 per coin.
There are a lot of different ways to make money from Bitcoin. Some traders attempt to profit from every up and down move, often using leverage.
The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (NASDAQ:IBIT | IBIT Price Prediction) trades around $42 today, down roughly 30% over the past year as Bitcoin itself has fallen from above $108,000 last May to about $75,800.
The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (NASDAQ:IBIT | IBIT Price Prediction) and the Fidelity Crypto Industry and Digital Payments ETF (NASDAQ:FDIG) offer fundamentally different exposures.
According to FactSet data, 42.3% of ETFs are less than three years old. This means nearly half the ETF universe is technically too young to earn a Morningstar rating or appear in many traditional advisor screening systems.
Last time, Strategy bought $3.5 billion in bitcoin in two weeks.
Bitcoin spot ETFs are having their strongest stretch of 2026.
I downgrade iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF from Buy to Hold after a strong rally and outperformance versus peers. IBIT has outpaced Coinbase and MicroStrategy but remains volatile and exposed to Bitcoin's unpredictable direction. Risks include quantum computing threats, potential government restrictions, and competition from new Bitcoin ETFs, though IBIT's 0.25% fee and scale remain advantages.