Intel (INTC -1.45%) is one of the worst-performing semiconductor stocks of the last two years.
INTC appears to be treading in the middle of the road and investors could be better off if they trade with caution.
Intel's (INTC -1.37%) management team elaborated on the company's key product releases and the industry's response.
Intel (INTC -1.37%) continues to disappoint stock market investors as new products fail to hit the mark.
A few new catalysts have fundamentally shifted INTC stock's return/risk curve since my last writing. First, its Q4 earnings are far better than I expected/feared, dramatically reducing my concerns over its financial resources. Second, the progress with its 18A products could be a pivotal moment for Intel's multi-year turnaround plan.
Despite beating 4Q FY2024 revenue and non-GAAP EPS estimates, Intel's muted price action reflects a gloomy 1Q FY2025 outlook, with a fourth consecutive YoY revenue decline. Some PC demand was pulled forward in 4Q due to potential Trump-era tariffs, which could pressure 1Q revenue while operating cost reductions will not contribute until later. Optimism remains for Intel's FY2026 roadmap, with higher gross margin 18A chips and reduced operating expenses expected, which can re-accelerate growth and profitability.
Intel reported $14.3B in revenue, a 7% sequential increase driven by Client Computing and Edge gains. Intel projects an 11-18% revenue decline, forecasting $11.7B to $12.7B due to seasonal weakness and competition. Intel Foundry posted a $2.3B operating loss in Q4, with breakeven targeted by the end of CY27.
There aren't many deep value turnaround opportunities in the technology world these days. However, Intel (INTC -0.46%) is an interesting case.
Intel's Panther Lake node, launching in 2H 2025, aims to surpass Taiwan Semiconductor's 2nm, potentially boosting Intel's competitive edge and shareholder returns. Despite a 7% YoY revenue drop, Intel's $14 billion revenue exceeded expectations, showing resilience amid its transition phase. Intel's foundry business, though currently loss-making, is crucial for future growth, with breakeven expected by 2027.
Overall, it was a good yearly result for Intel, considering the continued glut of traditional semiconductor segments with limited exposure to AI. Intel Products' CCG surprisingly delivered a revenue decline YoY due to competition. This is disturbing as this segment will face more competition this year from new entrants. While Intel Foundry is the future growth driver, it will take time because of the long product cycle and experience curve associated with 18A.
China opened an antitrust probe against Google as part of a sweeping set of retaliatory measures targeting the US economy after President Trump imposed a new 10% tariff on Chinese imports.
Intel shares have been hit over the past year due to shrinking revenues, large losses, and cash burn, despite beating estimates recently. The company's balance sheet remains under pressure, and its stock has fallen nearly 14% in three months, underperforming the S&P 500. While Intel's current quarter guidance may seem disappointing, the situation isn't as dire as it appears, but I'm not ready to fully buy in.