The S&P 500 needs a bigger selloff before it can start marching to a fresh record high, says BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky.
Options trader sentiment is on par with Liberation Day lows from April 2025
The forward 4-quarter estimate (FFQE) for the S&P 500 increased to $338.29 from last week's $322.20. That's a $16 and change jump for the FFQE. Even with the rally last week, the S&P 500 earnings yield still moved higher on the week, from last week's 5.06% to this week's 5.14%. It was the big jump in the FFQE thanks to the quarterly roll which pushed the S&P 500 earnings yield higher. Q4 '25 S&P 500 EPS and revenue growth ended the quarter at +14.1% and +9.2% after starting the quarter at +8.9% expected EPS growth and +7.3% expected S&P 500 revenue growth.
Seven 'safer' S&P 500 dividend stocks—VICI, VZ, BEN, F, HST, T, KEY, and RF—offer yields from $1K invested that exceed single share prices and are supported by free cash flow. Top ten S&P 500 dividend dogs are projected to deliver average net gains of 32.58% by April 2027, with risk/volatility 5% above market average. Analyst targets imply 25.96% to 44.73% net gains for leading dividend dogs, but caution is warranted due to historical target inaccuracy and potential market corrections.
The S&P 500 had its best day since May on Tuesday which led to the index's largest weekly gain in four months and its first in six weeks. The index rose 3.4% from the previous Friday and is now 5.67% off its all-time high from January 27, 2026.
Strong one-day rallies are far more common in weak markets.
Worries over AI spending and the sustainability of demand have been weighing on the tech sector.
If yesterday's low and breadth signals hold, the index reached a critical turning point, paving the way for renewed upward momentum in the weeks ahead, targeting ~6800.
As the war in Iran triggered widespread macroeconomic uncertainty, stocks like Sandisk, Lumentum, and Dow rose anyway.
These stocks saw significant declines in the month.
The broad U.S. equity index is closing out its worst quarter in four years, reflecting an investor retreat driven in large part by inflation fears, uncertainty over the Iran war and concerns about the economic impact of artificial intelligence.
Four REITs, including Realty Income, surpass the 10-year Treasury yield of 4.3%.