Southwest Airlines Co (NYSE:LUV) shares added more than 6% after the carrier issued profit guidance for 2026 that significantly exceeded Wall Street expectations. The Dallas-based airline said it expects to earn at least $4 per share in 2026, well above analysts' consensus estimate of $3.19 and more than triple its adjusted earnings in 2025.
The airline says its new economic model is critical to catch industry rivals, even if passengers have to pay more.
Southwest Airlines is rated a sell due to valuation concerns, execution risks, and opportunity costs versus peers like Alaska Air Group. LUV's 2026 guidance targets adjusted EPS of at least $4, but this is seen as potentially optimistic given industry risks and operational uncertainties. Southwest's strong balance sheet, $2.6B in share buybacks, and cost reduction initiatives are positives, but recent strategic changes introduce customer and volatility risks.
Although the revenue and EPS for Southwest (LUV) give a sense of how its business performed in the quarter ended December 2025, it might be worth considering how some key metrics compare with Wall Street estimates and the year-ago numbers.
Southwest Airlines (LUV) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.58 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.56 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.56 per share a year ago.
Southwest's five-decade era of open seating ended on Tuesday.
Southwest Airlines ended its open-seating policy after 54 years and has started assigning seats to passengers. The airline's executives say customers sought the change and touted the financial benefits to investors.
Get a deeper insight into the potential performance of Southwest (LUV) for the quarter ended December 2025 by going beyond Wall Street's top-and-bottom-line estimates and examining the estimates for some of its key metrics.
Let's assess the factors that are likely to have influenced LUV's fourth-quarter performance.
Southwest (LUV) possesses the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.
Southwest Airlines Co. remains expensive despite anticipated profitability improvements and upcoming Q4 results. Management expects modest capacity growth, incremental EBIT from assigned seating, and potential fuel price relief in 2026. EPS projections align with mid-single digit revenue growth and margin expansion, but fair value is estimated at $27.40—below current levels.
Southwest Airlines (LUV) shares have started gaining and might continue moving higher in the near term, as indicated by solid earnings estimate revisions.