I keep buying MercadoLibre (NASDAQ:MELI | MELI Price Prediction) every time the market throws a tantrum about it, and the last two months have handed me plenty of chances.
MercadoLibre's AI push reshapes search, fintech, logistics and software development as management points to efficiency gains and incremental revenues.
MercadoLibre remains a Buy, supported by robust ecosystem growth, resilient financials, and a margin of safety in valuation despite recent margin compression. MELI delivered 49% net revenue growth and a 42% GMV increase while continuing to invest heavily in strategic initiatives, accepting near-term margin pressure for long-term advantage. Macro risks persist, notably the potential for higher-for-longer interest rates, competitive pressure, and potential election volatility, but the company's strong balance sheet and market leadership also position it for long-term re-rating.
MercadoLibre remains a high-conviction buy, with a 7% portfolio allocation as the stock found technical support at the 50-month/200 DMA and moved higher since. MELI's top-line growth is accelerating due to strategic investments in shipping, credit cards, and 1P commerce, despite ongoing margin compression. Consensus expects 42% revenue growth and a 12% EPS decline in Q2 FY26; beating EPS estimates could trigger a significant rerating as MELI trades 33% below all-time highs.
Mercado Libre's FQ2'26 earnings call may show sequentially weaker margins and higher net debt ratios, as the management intensifies their commerce/logistics/fintech growth initiatives. This is, albeit with the aggressive investments strengthening conversion metrics, improving logistics efficiency, and growing cross-selling across commerce/fintech, lending credence to its high-growth prospects. The recent meltdown has triggered the compelling EV/Sales at 2.35x and PEG ratio at 1.21x, significantly aided by the potential emergence of a technical bottom.
MercadoLibre remains undervalued despite a challenging technical setup and recent underperformance versus Latin American equities and the S&P 500. MELI delivered strong Q1 revenue growth and user engagement, but shares fell sharply due to significant margin compression from aggressive long-term growth investments. I maintain a buy rating on MELI, with a revised fair value estimate of $2,475 based on $55 normalized EPS and a 45x P/E, reflecting robust out-year profit growth.
MercadoLibre's stock is down due to its declining profit margins. The company is making massive investments in e-commerce deliveries and acquiring credit card customers.
MercadoLibre is primed for a rebound after a ~30% stock decline despite accelerating growth, especially in Brazil. I see MELI benefiting from secular Latin American growth, with ~$20B quarterly GMV expanding at a mid-30s pace. MercadoPago, MELI's fintech arm, drives TPV at ~4x GMV and now contributes nearly half of total revenue.
MercadoLibre's Brazil growth accelerates as GMV, items sold, active buyers and shipping efficiencies strengthen, making it a key growth driver.
The latest trading day saw MercadoLibre (MELI) settling at $1, representing a +2.64% change from its previous close.
MercadoLibre's stock has fallen due to rising competition. Management said that online shopping in Latin America is just a fraction of what it is in the U.S. The company has a long track record of delivering strong growth.
MercadoLibre (MELI) concluded the recent trading session at $1, signifying a -2.71% move from its prior day's close.