Merck & Co. is no longer a deep-value patent cliff trade but a fairly valued defensive compounder. Future returns now depend on execution and pipeline delivery, not multiple expansion. Keytruda erosion may be slower than feared for MRK, but LOE still creates a major revenue hole. Extended growth helps, yet replacement needs to accelerate meaningfully. New products and the Prometheus Biosciences pipeline show promise but remain early-stage revenue streams. Several more quarters of scaling are needed before confidence in gap-filling is justified.
Merck delivered a strong Q4 double beat, with robust pipeline momentum and a healthy new launch cycle supporting a continued buy rating. MRK raised its price target to $130, reflecting normalized $10 EPS and a 13x P/E multiple, still below peers despite Keytruda LOE risks. Keytruda, Ohtuvayre, and Winrevair drive growth, while 80+ Phase 3 studies and recent acquisitions strengthen the pipeline and long-term outlook.
MRK posts conservative 2026 sales and EPS outlook, given acquisition charges. Keytruda, Animal Health and new drug launches are expected to drive 2026 growth.
Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Merck tops Q4 EPS and sales estimates as Keytruda drives growth, but shares fall in pre-market trading as 2026 guidance disappoints.
Although the revenue and EPS for Merck (MRK) give a sense of how its business performed in the quarter ended December 2025, it might be worth considering how some key metrics compare with Wall Street estimates and the year-ago numbers.
Merck & Co Inc (NYSE:MRK, XETRA:6MK) shares fell 2% at Tuesday's opening bell after the drugmaker issued a 2026 outlook that came in below Wall Street expectations, overshadowing a fourth-quarter earnings and revenue beat. Merck forecast 2026 revenue of $65.5 billion to $67.0 billion, compared with analysts' estimates of $67.6 billion, and adjusted earnings of $5 to $5.15 per share versus expectations of $5.36.
Merck (MRK) came out with quarterly earnings of $2.04 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.03 per share. This compares to earnings of $1.72 per share a year ago.
Merck's stock falls as the full-year revenue and profit outlooks were below expectations.
Merck recorded higher revenue in its fourth quarter, but expects earnings growth to slow as it ramps up acquisitions.
Merck & Co. reports Q4 2025 earnings on Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2026, before market open.
Merck (MRK) reached $110.42 at the closing of the latest trading day, reflecting a +1.92% change compared to its last close.