The neocloud reports a seven-fold increase in first-quarter revenue from last year.
NBIS heads into Q1 earnings with strong AI cloud demand and rapid expansion, but high valuation and heavy spending may keep investors cautious.
The only Nebius Group N.V. number I want to see growing faster than Q1 exit ARR is operating cash flow, as it sits at the center of the funding debate. NBIS FY25 operating cash flow was only $401.9M. If that wasn't bad enough, that figure included $982.5M of customer advances under strategic customer agreements. Management expects contract related cash flows to fund around 60% of 2026 CapEx, implying roughly $10.8B at the $18B midpoint of guidance.
Nebius buys Eigen AI for $643M to boost its AI cloud, aiming to build a fully integrated inference ecosystem and challenge hyperscalers.
Nebius Group NASDAQ: NBIS has been one of the most extraordinary stories in the market over the past year, and this week the momentum has kicked into another gear entirely. The stock closed Monday, May 4, at a new all-time high of $176.42, up over 14% on the day and about 600% over the prior 12 months.
Amsterdam-based AI infrastructure firm Nebius saw its shares surge nearly 12% on Monday after announcing plans to acquire Eigen AI in a deal valued at about $643 million, marking a significant step in its push toward production-grade artificial intelligence and expanding its footprint in the United States. The transaction, unveiled on Friday, includes approximately $98 million in cash and 3.8 million Nebius shares, with the valuation tied to the company's 30-day weighted average stock price.
I rate Nebius Group (NBIS) a Buy for aggressive growth investors and a Hold for most others, with a 12-month price target of $266 derived from two independent valuation methods. NBIS is a pure-play AI infrastructure company monetising the limited inputs in the current technology cycle: power grid access, GPU supply, and optimised data centre capacity. Bottlenecks become pricing power. The company reported Q4 2025 revenue of $227.7 million, with its core AI-cloud segment surging 802% year-over-year. NBIS exited 2025 with annualised recurring revenue of $1.25 billion.
Nebius Group N.V. benefits immensely from surging AI infrastructure demand, securing major deals with Meta and Nvidia amid hyperscaler capacity constraints. NBIS's $643M Eigen AI acquisition, largely funded with stock, strategically positions it to lead in open-source AI and optimize key token economics for customers. Financial prudence and lower-cost financing give NBIS flexibility for accretive M&A, differentiating it from more debt-heavy peers like CoreWeave.
Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) remains a Buy ahead of May 12th earnings, with my thesis anchored in its transition to a vertically integrated AI inference platform. NBIS's Eigen acquisition is pivotal, enhancing its Token Factory offering with advanced inference optimization, driving higher GPU utilization and lower cost-per-inference. Consensus expects Q1 2026 revenue of $388.6M (600% YoY growth), but continued losses; revenue outperformance and forward guidance will be key sentiment drivers.
For the last month or so, we're been highlighting Schaeffer's top 15 picks for 2026.
Nebius is a buy as the market underprices its de-risked, contracted AI infrastructure growth, with multiyear commitments from Microsoft and Meta. NBIS targets $7–$9B run-rate revenue by 2026, supported by over 3GW of contracted energy capacity and a rapid site expansion from 7 to 16. Consensus Q1 2026 revenue sits at ~$388.6M despite ~600% YoY growth, leaving room for upside as capacity ramps faster.
Nebius has surged 32% since my last article, confirming my bullish thesis. I see NBIS at the forefront of the data center AI revolution, warranting a higher valuation. Despite the recent rally, I maintain the view that NBIS remains undervalued.