Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX | NFLX Price Prediction) has taken a beating over the past year, and the sell-off has flipped a growth darling into a value debate.
Netflix is well-known for often cancelling shows that it shouldn't, but on rare occasions, it is justified in doing so. This time?
Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX | NFLX Price Prediction) has spent the past three months moving in the wrong direction, and the ripples are showing up unevenly across the exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that hold it.
It's a common notion that just because something is popular, that doesn't mean it's good. That is especially true on streaming services, and often on Netflix, where it is certainly the case today.
Netflix is doubling down on one of television's biggest franchises, signing a massive new licensing agreement worth a reported $500 million to bring The Walking Dead Universe to audiences around the world.
Roku's diversified ad, subscription and platform strategy, raised guidance and lower valuation premium give it an edge over Netflix now.
Ransom Canyon may be #1 on Netflix's top 10 list right now, but in the larger context of the show and the service, its performance leaves something to be desired.
Netflix's selective live events strategy is boosting subscriber sign-ups, engagement and ads, positioning live programming as a key growth driver.
I rate Netflix (NFLX) a Buy, with a fair value estimate of $92—27% upside—driven by subscription, advertising, and live programming monetization. NFLX's scale enables global content leverage, selective price increases, and margin expansion, with 2026 revenue guidance of $51.0B–$51.4B and 31.5% operating margin. Advertising and live programming offer incremental growth without major platform rebuilds; ad revenue is projected at $3B in 2026, with rapid growth potential.
Bernard Arnault says he invested in Netflix in its early days, but sold too soon. The LVMH CEO told the "Legend" podcast that he regrets missing out on the stock's subsequent surge.
Netflix is a best-in-class streaming industry leader that still has multiple avenues for future growth, and a reasonable valuation. Long-term tailwinds are structural in nature, including room for subscription price hikes and better ad monetization, and global growth in the middle class. AI could help to support engagement, ad monetization, and production. Meanwhile, Netflix has a long track record of navigating an evolving and competitive industry.
Netflix now trades at $70, but with 67% more revenue, 2.5x operating income, and much higher margins than at this price in 2021. Despite recent de-rating due to missed guidance and slower engagement, NFLX offers a historically cheap valuation—46% below its 5-year average P/E and PEG below 1. The advertising segment, now 6% of revenue and rapidly scaling, could add $5–$7 billion in high-margin revenue over three years, yet is priced at zero.