NVO's $4.7B acquisition of Akero Therapeutics adds a late-stage MASH therapy to its obesity-linked pipeline, advancing its expansion goal beyond semaglutide.
Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) M&A Call October 9, 2025 8:00 AM EDT Company Participants Jacob Martin Rode - Head of Investor Relations Maziar Doustdar - President, CEO & Member of the Management Board Ludovic Helfgott - Executive VP of Product & Portfolio Strategy and Member of Management Board Martin Lange - EVP of R&D, CSO and Member of the Management Board Conference Call Participants Harry Sephton - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division Simon Baker - Rothschild & Co Redburn, Research Division Peter Verdult - BNP Paribas Exane, Research Division Conor MacKay - BMO Capital Markets Equity Research Michael Nedelcovych - TD Cowen, Research Division Michael Leuchten - Jefferies LLC, Research Division Seamus Fernandez - Guggenheim Securities, LLC, Research Division Thibault Boutherin - Morgan Stanley, Research Division Florent Cespedes - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC.
Equity markets are said to be forward looking. However, sometimes they fail to look far enough into the future by reacting too harshly to the challenges some companies face in the present.
NVO trades at a rare dislocation with a forward P/E ~15% below sector and EPS growth ~66% above, primed for the 2026 healthcare re-rating. Its semaglutide engine (Wegovy growth, CagriSema pipeline, high-dose oral filing) anchors durable expansion despite Lilly's dominance. Pricing, supply, and concentration risks exist, but oversold RSI and macro tailwinds set up 20–30% upside with limited downside.
Novo Nordisk is expanding beyond Wegovy and Ozempic with next-generation obesity candidates and strategic deals to defend its market lead.
Novo Nordisk remains a strong buy despite recent market pessimism, with key growth catalysts on the horizon. NVO's Wegovy, especially at higher doses, rivals Eli Lilly's Zepbound in weight loss and offers superior cardiovascular benefits, maintaining competitive strength. Concerns over tariffs and compounded drugs are overblown; NVO's US manufacturing footprint and legal actions minimize these risks.
Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) has been knocked back by Morgan Stanley, which has cut its rating on the Danish drugmaker from equal weight to underweight and lowered its price target from DKr 380 to DKr 300. The shares fell 2% to DKr 341.95 in Copenhagen after the note landed.
Novo Nordisk, Sanofi, and AstraZeneca face the largest dollar exposure to President Trump's new 100% tariff on imported branded drugs. NVO's heavy reliance on U.S. sales and imported GLP-1 products puts over 50% of its free cash flow at risk, despite ongoing U.S. manufacturing expansion. Sanofi's high-margin Dupixent and AZN's broad U.S. portfolio are also vulnerable, though both are investing in U.S. production to seek exemptions.
Despite the difficulties Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 franchise has encountered due to Eli Lilly and manufacturers of compounded versions of semaglutide, demand for Wegovy remains strong. So, its sales amounted to about DKK 19.5 billion in Q2 2025, up 12.5% quarter-on-quarter, thanks in part to strong new data from the SELECT study published on May 13. However, due to the need to rejuvenate and strengthen its portfolio of experimental drugs, Novo Nordisk's management decided not to repurchase shares in Q2 2025.
In Denmark's seaside town of Kalundborg, also known as "Novo Town", therapist Heidi Thron Rune has learnt to live with the noise of building work as new facilities take shape to meet demand for Novo Nordisk's Wegovy weight-loss drug.
The market will likely pull back at some point, and I think it is smart to start considering some more defensive value positions in your portfolio. NVO remains one of the leaders in the diabetes and obesity space, which has a lot of tailwinds moving forward, but they're priced at ~50% discount to peers like LLY. UPS has many risks, but the valuation of 12x PE seems far too cheap for the recovery story they are currently building.
Novo Nordisk shares rose 5% on Thursday following positive analyst reactions to an investor meeting that company executives held at the European Association for the Study of Diabetes conference.