PM is set for revenue and earnings growth in 3Q25, fueled by strong smoke-free momentum and solid global performance.
Philip Morris (PM) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.
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In the last decade, Philip Morris International (NYSE: PM) has returned a notable $74 billion back to its shareholders via dividends and buybacks. This shareholder-focused approach has delivered exceptional results in 2025, with the stock posting an impressive 30% year-to-date return, significantly outperforming the broader market despite recent volatility and establishing PM as one of the year's standout consumer staples performers.
PM has raised its quarterly dividend by 8.9%, underscoring growth through smoke-free products, cost savings and strong brands.
Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE:PM ) Barclays 18th Annual Global Consumer Staples Conference 2025 September 2, 2025 11:15 AM EDT Company Participants Jacek Olczak - CEO & Director Conference Call Participants Gaurav Jain - Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division Presentation Gaurav Jain Research Analyst Good morning, everyone. Thank you for being here.
Philip Morris' Q2 Zyn volumes missed expectations in the US, but strong overall SFB growth reinforces my long-term buy thesis as the company pivots to smoke-free products. SFB now represents 23% of volumes and 43% of gross margin, with superior unit economics—each SFB unit is twice as profitable as combustibles. Key metrics to track: sustained positive volume growth, SFB gross margin share surpassing 50%, and maintaining strong SFB unit economics without margin sacrifice.
PM's second-quarter results show smoke-free gains lifting revenues and profit, even as cigarette volumes continue to decline.
Philip Morris International's growth is driven by smoke-free products like IQOS and ZYN, with strong sales momentum post-Swedish Match acquisition. Despite robust operational performance and a raised outlook, the stock's valuation appears stretched with an EV/FCF of 31x and a historically low 3.1% dividend yield. Much of the recent growth seems to be already priced in, and further upside seems limited, making the risk/reward profile unattractive at current levels.
Philip Morris (PM) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock?
Philip Morris is the world's largest publicly traded 'sin' stock, valued at over $250 billion. The company has a strong track record of outperforming the market, driven by its shareholder return focus. Recent earnings suggest PM still has significant growth potential ahead.
Philip Morris' smoke-free growth is strong, but cigarette declines and a premium valuation urge cautious investment moves.