Shell PLC reported its lowest quarterly profit since the start of 2021 as oil prices fell, but announced a 4% dividend increase and launched another $3.5 billion share buyback programme. Adjusted earnings came in at $3.26 billion for the fourth quarter of 2025, down 40% and below analyst expectations of $3.5 billion.
Adjusted earnings—a closely watched metric that strips out certain commodity-price adjustments and one-time charges—fell to $3.26 billion from $5.43 billion in the preceding quarter.
Adjusted earnings—a closely watched metric that strips out certain commodity-price adjustments and one-time charges—fell to $3.26 billion from $5.43 billion in the preceding quarter.
Shell's SHEL.L adjusted earnings, its definition of net profit, reached $3.26 billion in the fourth quarter, it said on Thursday, compared with $3.7 billion a year earlier and an average analyst estimate of $3.5 billion in a company-provided poll.
Shell is reporting fourth-quarter and full-year results on Thursday. The oil major has been aggressively buying back its shares in recent years but, with earnings likely to be hit by a weaker oil price, there are questions over whether it can keep up this pace.
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RBC Capital Markets has a dim view of Shell PLC ahead of Thursday's fourth-quarter results, having recently downgraded the big-cap oiler to ‘Sector Perform', citing concerns over weakening portfolio depth and softer operational performance. Previewing the upcoming numbers the Canadian bank noted that Shell's January trading update flagged challenges in its upstream operations and oil trading division, offset only partially by improved refining margins.
Beyond analysts' top-and-bottom-line estimates for Shell (SHEL), evaluate projections for some of its key metrics to gain a better insight into how the business might have performed for the quarter ended December 2025.
SHEL's Q4 results hinge on upstream strength as marketing and chemicals segments face seasonal and structural pressure.
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RBC Capital Markets has downgraded Shell PLC (LSE:SHEL, NYSE:SHEL), citing growing concerns over portfolio longevity, gas exposure and the outlook for LNG trading margins. The bank said Shell has delivered well on its strategy since the 2023 capital markets day, with management focusing on capital discipline and shareholder returns, while de-emphasising renewables.