STX's 44TB Mozaic 4 drives are fueling gross margin expansion as cloud demand, higher storage density and improved cost efficiency boost profitability prospects.
Seagate just shed more than 14% in a month after a rival made a move that rattled the entire hard-drive sector, yet the company's own numbers tell a completely different story about where demand is heading.
Seagate is positioned as a beneficiary of the AI buildout, leveraging its advanced storage solutions for large-scale data needs. HAMR technology enables STX to offer higher-capacity drives, reducing required units and operational costs for data centers, with 44TB drives available and 100TB planned by 2032. The company delivered strong financials: FY2026 sales up 34% to $12.2B, adjusted operating margins at 36.5%, and free cash flow 3.8x prior year, supporting a Buy rating.
Seagate shares cratered 15% in a single week even as analysts refused to cut a single earnings estimate and the stock still sits nearly 52% below where the average price target says it should be.
Seagate's hard drives quietly power the AI boom without a single chip, and the stock already rewarded patient investors with a 261% gain in one year alone.
A storage company that most investors wrote off as a dying PC supplier did something unexpected over the last decade, and dividends played a stranger role in the outcome than almost anyone would have guessed.
The AI boom is creating an unexpected beneficiary in the storage market: hard disk drives (HDDs). While AI discussions often center on GPUs, networking and high-bandwidth memory, AI workloads also generate massive volumes of data that must be stored economically.
Seagate just shed billions in market cap on a single Toshiba headline, yet its nearline drives are locked into contracts stretching deep into 2027.
Seagate benefits from rising data center storage demand and stronger HDD pricing, with longer customer commitments supporting visibility and AI inference expanding storage needs. Higher-capacity HAMR drives lower manufacturing costs per terabyte, while stronger pricing and a favorable product mix could push gross margins above 65% within 2 years. Seagate's rapid deleveraging strengthens its balance sheet and reduces exposure to elevated interest rates.
Seagate and Western Digital are the leading high-capacity hard disk drive storage stocks. They have generated triple-digit average returns over the past three years.
Investors are worried that Toshiba will boost its production of a key AI storage product, potentially hurting the strong pricing power that Western Digital and Seagate currently enjoy.
Seagate Technology Holdings is rated Buy, driven by robust cloud demand, disciplined pricing, and a successful transition to higher-capacity HAMR drives. STX's fiscal Q4 saw non-GAAP EPS of $5.71 (+$0.62 vs. consensus), revenue up 48.8% YoY, and gross margin surging to 52.7%. Mozaic platform adoption and long-term agreements with cloud customers underpin earnings visibility, but future margin durability depends on sustained areal density and cost advantages.