Seagate's HAMR technology leads the nearline HDD market, offering lower TCO for customers and margin expansion potential for Seagate. Valuations remain reasonable despite a sharp rally, with earnings upgrades driving the stock rather than multiple expansion. Free cash flow is set to improve significantly, supporting robust buybacks and a stable dividend yield for shareholders.
Seagate Technology has taken the spot as the S&P 500's leading performer this year, riding the AI boom to overtake the high-profile tech names that usually dominate the benchmark index
Initiate Buy on Seagate with $172 PT, driven by HAMR technology leadership and aggressive margin expansion roadmap, projecting FY26 EPS of $10.10, well above consensus. HAMR adoption and Mozaic platform shift drive structural gross margin inflection, with operating leverage and disciplined supply chain management supporting multi-year earnings growth. Balance sheet deleveraging and reduced interest expense provide incremental EPS leverage, enabling sustained R&D investment and margin durability through technology transitions.
Question: How would you respond if you owned Seagate (NASDAQ: STX) and its value plummeted by 60% or more in the upcoming months?
Seagate is at a critical inflection point, driven by HAMR commercialization and surging AI-induced storage demand, supporting my strong buy thesis. HAMR technology positions Seagate as an industry leader, unlocking multi-billion-dollar opportunities and significant margin expansion as cloud and AI workloads grow. Despite recent stock rallies, Seagate remains deeply undervalued on key multiples, with a DCF-based intrinsic value of $174, offering substantial upside.
Seagate Technology Holdings plc (NASDAQ:STX ) Bank of America Securities 2025 Global Technology Conference June 3, 2025 1:00 PM ET Company Participants Gianluca Romano - CFO & EVP Conference Call Participants Wamsi Mohan - Bank of America Wamsi Mohan First day year again this year in San Francisco. I'm Wamsi Mohan.
Seagate offers a rare combination of a PEG under 1, double-digit growth, and innovative products in a duopoly market. The explosion of global data, fueled by AI and high-resolution content, is driving strong demand for Seagate's storage solutions. Seagate's leadership in HAMR technology positions it as a key innovator, enabling higher storage density and future growth.
Seagate (STX) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock?
Seagate Technology Holdings plc (NASDAQ:STX ) TD Cowen's 53rd Annual Technology, Media & Telecom Conference May 28, 2025 11:25 AM ET Company Participants Gianluca Romano - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Krish Sankar - TD Cowen Krish Sankar I'm Krish Sankar with TD Cowen, and the next company presenting is Seagate. We're fortunate to have Gianluca Romano, the CFO.
Seagate's HAMR transition will dramatically expand gross margins and catalyze market share gains, driving outsize growth. Seagate is years ahead of Western Digital on HAMR, and this lead will persist for years. The AI and data center boom ensures robust demand for high-capacity HDDs, with Seagate's products remaining the low-cost storage solution.
Seagate Technology Holdings plc (NASDAQ:STX ) Seagate 2025 Investor and Analyst Conference Call May 22, 2025 9:00 AM ET Company Participants Shanye Hudson - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations Dave Mosley - Chief Executive Officer John Morris - Senior Vice President and Chief Technology Officer B.S. Teh - Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer Gianluca Romano - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Erik Woodring - Morgan Stanley Krish Sankar - TD Cowen Amit Daryanani - Evercore ISI Aaron Rakers - Wells Fargo Securities C.J.