UNH is expanding its Optum surgery centers, cutting costs while boosting growth and patient access in value-based care.
I initiate my coverage on UNH with a hold rating. Despite attractive valuation, with the P/E near 2014 levels and EV/EBITDA ~30% below sector median, I prefer to wait until the pessimism clears out. My main concern is the reinstated FY 2025 guidance at much lower EPS and the DOJ scrutiny. Overall, I don't believe the headwinds are fully priced in.
Key Points in This Article: Warren Buffett seeks stocks with strong fundamentals undervalued due to market fear.
UNH stands out among peers for its strong dividend yield, consistent FCF generation, and expected double-digit dividend growth, making it my top healthcare pick. Despite recent setbacks—poor earnings, DOJ investigation, and reputational hits—I view these as temporary, presenting a long-term buying opportunity at a bargain price. Valuation models show UNH is trading at a 31% discount to fair value, with potential annualized returns between 11.7% and 18.8% over five years.
Berkshire Hathaway's $1.6B stake signals confidence in UnitedHealth, driving a sharp rally after a year of heavy declines and episodic setbacks. UNH's fundamentals remain robust: strong cash flow, scale, and attractive valuation metrics versus peers, despite recent profit pressures and cost overruns. Key catalysts include guidance stabilization, Medicare Advantage pricing, and operational improvements; most negative events appear priced in, tilting risk/reward to the upside.
UnitedHealth and Elevance battle rising costs, but scale, Optum, and Buffett's backing give UNH the edge in restoring investor trust.
UnitedHealth (UNH) has received quite a bit of attention from Zacks.com users lately. Therefore, it is wise to be aware of the facts that can impact the stock's prospects.
UnitedHealth: One Of The Best Risk-To-Reward Ratio On The Market
Warren Buffett's $1.57B position signals confidence, but UNH's rally stems from other factors beyond that. With Buffett or without him, I believe that UNH's rally should keep going. Management is aggressively repricing all business lines for 2026, exiting 600,000+ unprofitable members while shifting to higher-margin products amid elevated medical cost trends. Trading at 15x forward earnings near 2020 levels, UNH mirrors past recovery setups when EPS growth of 11-12% drove significant stock appreciation.
Berkshire's $1.57B stake in UnitedHealth lifted shares by 12%, sparking interest in UNH-heavy healthcare ETFs like IHF, TMED, XLV and MEDI.
The Leverage Shares 2X Long UNH Daily ETF offers leveraged exposure to UnitedHealth's stock via derivative positions with mild basis risk. Despite its recent recovery, we still see UnitedHealth as being undervalued. By using forward P/E and management's guidance, we set a base target of $344 per share. Additional demand could arrive via a herding effect, likely triggered by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway and Renaissance Technologies revealing positions in UNH via their 13-F filings.
UNH is expanding further into home health with Optum, fueled by a $3.3B Amedisys deal to boost value-based care growth.