Since I last checked on power producer Vistra in December 2025, its price has expectedly underwhelmed. But given the developments since, I believe the markets are underpricing the promising stock. Its power purchase agreements with Amazon and Meta for the provision of nuclear energy alone imply the possible growth potential, not to mention the possibility of a premium on market valuations. The company's expansion of gas assets with the purchase of Cogentrix Energy, after it bought Lotus Infrastructure Partners' gas assets last year, also works in its favor.
VST beats Q1 EPS and revenue estimates as capacity prices jump; hedging nearly all 2026 volumes lifts visibility.
I am rating Vistra a Strong Buy because AI is turning electricity into a scarce asset and Vistra owns the kind of dispatchable power portfolio that data centers need. The key growth drivers are AI-driven data center demand, PJM nuclear scarcity, ERCOT load growth and Cogentrix gas acquisition. These drivers should lift EBITDA by $500Mn. My Price Target is $220 and is based on using a 12x EV/EBITDA multiple and $8.1Bn of 2027 EBITDA. This represents a 48% potential upside.
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The headline numbers for Vistra (VST) give insight into how the company performed in the quarter ended March 2026, but it may be worthwhile to compare some of its key metrics to Wall Street estimates and the year-ago actuals.
Vistra Corp. (VST) came out with quarterly earnings of $2.87 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.21 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.46 per share a year ago.
Vistra Corp. delivered a strong Q1 double beat, reaffirming robust FY2026 guidance and maintaining a buy rating despite recent underperformance versus the S&P 500. VST's growth profile is compelling, with 2024 EPS expected to surge over 80% and a normalized PEG ratio at just 0.41, supporting an attractive valuation. Strategic moves, including the Cogentrix acquisition and major tech PPAs, are set to drive nearly 50% of EBITDA from retail and contracted sources.
Vistra Corp swung to a quarterly profit on Thursday, driven by rising power demand and prices, sending its shares up 4.2% in premarket trading.
VST heads into Q1 report with revenues seen up 37% and EPS up 380%, as data-center power demand and buybacks take center stage.
Looking beyond Wall Street's top-and-bottom-line estimate forecasts for Vistra (VST), delve into some of its key metrics to gain a deeper insight into the company's potential performance for the quarter ended March 2026.
Vistra's nuclear push and cheaper valuation give it an edge over Southern Company as utilities race to add clean power to their portfolio.
Vistra (VST) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.