System-wide BDC dividend cuts are highly likely as base dividend coverage averages 99% and growth is constrained. As a result, many BDC investors have decided to sit on the sidelines until the expected dividend cuts materialize. The idea is that a cut will lead to a negative share price reaction and thus provide a better opportunity to buy at a bargain price.
Here is how Belden (BDC) and ATN International (ATNI) have performed compared to their sector so far this year.
Palmer Square Capital BDC remains a sell due to persistent NAV declines, weak earnings, and lack of near-term catalysts. PSBD trades at a record 23.47% discount to NAV, but I see further downside risk outweighing the appeal of its 14.6% dividend yield. Management's capital allocation favors supplemental distributions over reinvestment, limiting earnings growth and NAV recovery potential.
Runway Growth Finance's acquisition of SWK Holdings is on track to close in late March 2026. This merger is expected to scale RWAY's portfolio and increase its healthcare exposure. RWAY is aggressively lowering its cost of capital by issuing $100 million in new 7.25% notes, RWAYI, due 2031. The proceeds are being used to retire more expensive debt, including the full redemption of the 8.00% RWAYZ notes and a partial redemption of the 7.50% RWAYL notes.
Belden Inc. delivered strong Q4 results, with sales up 8% y/y and EPS beating estimates by 13 cents. Automation Solutions drove growth, while Smart Infrastructure lagged; profitability improved via higher-margin integrated solutions. BDC management is pivoting toward AI data centers and broadband expansion, restructuring segments to highlight high-growth opportunities.
The market has become worried about BDCs mostly from the credit risk perspective. However, some of the recent earnings reports and BDC examples show that dividend cut risk has not disappeared. In this article, I share two BDC examples that are very likely to slash their dividends soon.
Bain Capital Specialty Finance remains resilient amid sector headwinds, offering a 12.1% dividend yield and trading at a 22.47% discount to NAV. BCSF's portfolio is anchored by first lien debt, maintains low non-accruals at 0.7% of fair value, and demonstrates strong dividend coverage with spillover income. Despite NAV trending downward and limited net investment growth, BCSF's fundamentals support continued supplemental distributions over the next year.
The market is signaling distress for BDCs, but the data tells a very different story. Dividend cuts for BDCs aren't what most investors think they are. Rare, well-covered double-digit yields trading at huge discounts to NAV are quietly flashing opportunity signals.
I'm maintaining a "Buy" rating on Hercules Capital as I believe there are seven key reasons why it remains the top pick in the BDC sector for 2026. HTGC's business model is well adapted to the rate-cutting cycle, demonstrating effective scaling through its internal management structure and a clear commitment to diversifying cash flows. HTGC's dividend yield is expected to remain stable, while technical analysis of higher timeframes indicates further upside potential for the stock.
Most BDCs are exposed to a SOFR-driven dividend normalization process. Yet, Hercules Capital stands out as a rare high-quality exception, which has the necessary tools to preserve its base dividend. In the article I share more details about the underlying fundamentals and specific market dynamics that create a solid case for accessing reliable income from HTGC.
Trinity Capital is rated a "Buy", supported by 6 strategic factors enabling high dividend yield and share price growth despite sector headwinds. TRIN's business model adapts to falling rates, leverages warrant income, internal management scale, and equipment leasing for diversified, resilient cash flows. A forward dividend yield of 12.67% and monthly payments enhance TRIN's appeal for income-focused investors.
The BDC sector is slowly rebounding, but still faces looming dividend cuts as NII per share declines with lower base rates and spread compression. Average BDC base dividend coverage is 100%, and debt-to-equity is 1.22x, leaving little margin for sustaining current payouts without asset sales or leverage. Dividend cuts of 15-20% are likely sector-wide but remain acceptable given prevailing yields (as long as non-accruals do not get involved).