Saratoga Investment remains a hold, balancing portfolio resilience with notable risks from elevated software exposure and dividend coverage concerns. SAR's 14.4% yield is attractive, but adjusted net investment income fell below payout levels, raising the likelihood of a near-term dividend reduction. Despite 28% software exposure and sector headwinds, SAR's disciplined underwriting and low non-accruals (0.2% of portfolio) have limited realized losses.
6% to 8% yield range is where investors can find quite many opportunities without losing their sleep at night. 8%+ (and certainly 10%+) allocations increase risks exponentially. However, high risk isn't the same as certain value destruction.
April net investment activity reached a multi-year low as rising stock valuations and BDC sector weakness prompted a cautious approach and selective BDC purchases. Focused April allocations on Ares Capital, Blue Owl Capital, and Hercules Capital, yielding a 7.5% average on new investments despite sector headwinds. Dividend income set a modest April record at $990, up 3% year-over-year, with BDCs contributing 27% of Q2 year-to-date dividends but facing potential further cuts.
We take a look at the action in business development companies through the third week of May and highlight some of the key themes we are watching. BDCs were lower on the week, with PSEC hit by a dividend cut and OTF rebounding after prior software loan-driven losses. Q1 BDC results show no significant systemic deterioration; average total NAV return was flat, but dispersion remains wide across names.
Capital Southwest trading significantly above NAV is a massive competitive advantage, allowing it to issue highly accretive equity. The Circle of Virtue: Selling stock at +$20 to fund $16 NAV assets creates instant earnings growth. CSWC generated a massive $0.59 in NAV accretion over the past year simply by issuing equity at a premium.
Hercules Capital (HTGC) now trades at 1.2x NAV, offering a compelling entry point for income-focused investors. HTGC maintains a robust, internally managed portfolio with a 12% dividend yield, supported by stable net investment income and disciplined underwriting. Recent valuation compression reflects market concerns over AI-driven disruption in software, but only a third of HTGC's portfolio is exposed.
Blue Owl Technology Finance is a tech-focused BDC trading at a deep 33% discount to NAV amid portfolio headwinds. OTF's 12.7% dividend yield is not currently covered by adjusted net investment income, relying instead on spillover income. Net realized losses and software sector exposure have pressured NAV and returns, but management continues to deploy capital into new investments.
Income-focused investors comparing high-yield options to mainstream dividend funds encounter a familiar gap.
Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc. (LIEN) shares have started gaining and might continue moving higher in the near term, as indicated by solid earnings estimate revisions.
The heavy selling pressure might have exhausted for Belden (BDC) as it is technically in oversold territory now. In addition to this technical measure, strong agreement among Wall Street analysts in revising earnings estimates higher indicates that the stock is ripe for a trend reversal.
Crescent Capital BDC trades near a 52-week low, offering a 13% yield and a deep 0.61x price-to-book discount. CCAP's first-lien-heavy, diversified portfolio and recent management fee reductions support strong NII-to-dividend coverage at 113.5%. Nonaccruals rose to 3.6% of portfolio value, mainly in healthcare, but management actively manages these with meaningful control.
Belden (BDC) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), reflecting growing optimism about the company's earnings prospects. This might drive the stock higher in the near term.