Contrarian investing is hard. It is difficult to go against the crowd.
Guinness owner Diageo PLC (LSE:DGE) is expected to report another slide in earnings in its full-year results later this month, with analysts expecting it to lower mid-term guidance as a result. Ahead of the update on July 30, analysts at Deutsche Bank warned organic sales in the second half may drop by 2%, compared to market consensus of a 0.9% rise.
Goldman Sachs has downgraded Diageo from a neutral to sell rating over concerns an ongoing slump in the U.S. spirits market will have an outsized impact on the London firm's sales.
British booze supplier Diageo PLC (LSE:DGE) has hardly been in high spirits this year, with the FTSE 100-listed multinational's share price falling more than 10% in the first half. But with destocking headwinds settling down and the prospect of positive earnings momentum in the upcoming financial year, Diageo shares may currently offer a cheap round for patient investors.
The Diageo PLC (LSE:DGE) whisky brand Crown Royal, the company's largest in the US, has experienced a recent slowdown and it could be a worrying "inflection point" for the group. Analysts at Jefferies noted that NielsenIQ data indicates fading demand for Crown Royal as the influence of its blackberry variant launched in March dissipates.
The stock price of Diageo (NYSE: DEO) trades at $130 per share, about 40% below its peak level of over $220 seen in December 2021. In contrast, its peer Anheuser-Busch InBev stock (NYSE: BUD) saw a 2% decline over this period.
Diageo's dividend has increased every year for more than 20 years, so it has an exceptional track record of progressive dividend growth. Diageo's declining equity is slightly odd because a growing company will usually be growing its equity, as that's the foundational source of funding upon which the rest of the business depends. Looking beyond the short-term headwinds, Diageo still operates in a very large and growing market.
Diageo (DEO) benefits from its focus on improving productivity coupled with its diversified footprint, a solid portfolio of brands, innovation and pricing.
AnheuserBusch InBev, Diageo, Constellation Brands, Molson Coors and The Boston Beer have been highlighted in this Industry Outlook article.
Diageo PLC (LSE:DGE) saw its price target clipped by Deutsche Bank, with the German financial institution taking a “more cautious” view of the London-listed share. Deutsche has a ‘Sell' rating for the Guiness and Smirnoff parent company, and, with a new target of £23.00 (down from £24.00) the bank sees around 14% downside to the current Diageo price of 2,672p.
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Diageo's recent stock price underperformance may provide a long-term upside for patient investors. Diageo's Chinese and Indian subsidiaries might increase their core operating profit margin in the next 2-3 years. This is supported by premiumization and scale. Ongoing discount on Diageo's valuation, despite a quality asset-based portfolio. This means a buy.