XPAY is a newer ETF offered by Roundhill, offering S&P 500 exposure through options and targeting a 20% annualized distribution rate, paid monthly. The fund's distributions are primarily return of capital, of which some portion will likely be destructive and erode NAV over time. With ROC distributions, though, that can be quite appealing for some investors as it can defer tax obligations.
The escalating trade war with China poses a major threat to the U.S. stock market. Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird, joined TheStreet to discuss why this conflict presents a significant risk to both Wall Street and the broader U.S. economy.
From most of the prominent Q1 '25 earnings so far, some of the mentioned trends in conference calls is that some S&P 500 companies pre-ordered or accelerated orders for those products impacted by tariffs. March '25 retail sales data, which is a good read on the US consumer, still indicates a healthy trend with March retail sales +1.4%, or +1.7% after revisions. Given earnings patterns over the years, and because Q1 '25 was pre-Liberation Day, Q2 '25 earnings are expected - from the results this past week - to be up 10-12% for the quarter.
The intersection of two different S&P 500 moving averages may suggest the market is losing momentum, but it's not necessarily a disaster, particularly for investors with longer horizons.
The S&P 500 formed a death cross this week, a pattern where the index's 50-day moving average crossed below its 200-day moving average. The index remains in correction territory, sitting 14.02% below its record close from February 19th, 2025.
The S&P 500 trades at 5,360 today. If tariffs bite the economy and send the United States into a recession, it may well reset to where it was the last time bad news triggered deep anxiety about gross domestic product (GDP).
The index's 50-day moving average indicates it is losing momentum compared with the 200-day moving average.
“Be prepared for anything to happen and be open to all possibilities beyond Monday.
Following its worst week in over five years, the S&P 500 staged a significant recovery, posting its best week since November 2023 with a 5.7% gain. This rebound was largely fueled by Wednesday's dramatic 9.5% surge, its biggest single-day increase since 2008.
Despite all the doom and gloom, the SP500 is still not in a bear market and should be able to rally to, ideally, $6,738-7,121 over the coming months.
Heading into earnings season, Q1 growth expectations were revised down by 4.3 percentage points. A key driver of estimate downgrades heading into the quarter appears to be weaker-than-usual forward guidance. The Magnificent-7 are still expected to play a large role in Q1, but the trend is pointing towards a relative rotation into the S&P 493.
“As tariffs are implemented, they will have negative consequences for corporate earnings over the coming months,” notes Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok.