When deciding whether to buy, sell, or hold a stock, investors often rely on analyst recommendations. Media reports about rating changes by these brokerage-firm-employed (or sell-side) analysts often influence a stock's price, but are they really important?
MSTR's Bitcoin stash hits 717,131 BTC as fresh buys and a $25.3B capital raise fuel aggressive accumulation into 2026.
If you have spent any time on Reddit, you've seen that Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) shares have collapsed 62% over the past year, and Reddit investors are not holding back.
Strategy plunges nearly 60% in a year, but its $60B Bitcoin reserve and capital firepower may offer a strategic entry point.
The company raised over $25 billion in FY25, acquiring roughly 225,000 Bitcoin and driving 22.8% annual Bitcoin yield. Management plans $6–10 billion in annual digital credit issuance, targeting 5%–14% yearly Bitcoin yield expansion. Preferred equity carries an 11.25% dividend, while a $2.25 billion cash reserve covers over two years of obligations.
Strategy has transformed into a Bitcoin treasury play, with performance now tightly linked to Bitcoin price movements. Key metrics to monitor for MSTR are forced liquidations, long-term HODLer behavior, and Bitcoin ETF flows, which provide clarity amid volatility. MSTR's $8.2B debt is largely convertible and well covered by $2.25B in cash and substantial Bitcoin reserves, minimizing near-term financial risk.
A broad investment strategy encompassing infrastructure across developed markets can offer U.S. investors a way to ride along with economic trends at a discount to the price/earnings valuation of the S&P 500.
Strategy CEO Michael Saylor brushed off concerns about the company's credit risk if bitcoin continues to tumble. In fact, Saylor said he plans to keep accumulating the cryptocurrency for the company every quarter.
Strategy Executive Chair Michael Saylor attempted on Tuesday to dismiss “unfounded” fears that the recent tumble in bitcoin prices would force the company to pare back its holdings, but he did acknowledge that more price volatility for the cryptocurrency, and for the company's stock, was likely.
If bitcoin continues to fall, Strategy plans to just refinance its debt, claims CEO Michael Saylor. Saylor refuted the idea that Strategy would sell any of its digital asset holdings: "I expect we'll be buying bitcoin every quarter forever," he said.
Strategy Inc. remains a Buy despite Bitcoin's bear market, leveraging a $2.25B cash reserve and trading at a rare discount to NAV. MSTR's Q4 net loss is a non-cash accounting distortion; the company's robust cash position covers over 2.5 years of interest and dividends. The legacy software business now generates a $200M+ annual run rate, with 66% gross margins, potentially subsidizing OpEx and protecting the cash reserve.
MSTX, the Defiance Daily Target 2X Long MSTR ETF, remains a 'Sell' after collapsing over 90% in the past year. The ETF's structure amplifies downside as MSTR shares fall, with current price action risking delisting unless a reverse split occurs. MSTR's balance sheet is stable until 2028, but its equity is highly sensitive to further bitcoin declines, driving continued bearishness.