Strategy Inc (MSTR) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
I'm not buying the dip on Strategy Inc., even though I'm bullish on Bitcoin over a timeframe of 12-18 months. The near-term key risk for MSTR stock, in my view, is mNAV breaking below 1, which can turn equity issuance dilutive and threaten the BTC-per-share accretion story. That said, I am mindful that MSTR has roughly 2.5 years of dividend and interest coverage against preferred and debt obligations.
MicroStrategy remains a HOLD even after its correction, as its shares trade at an 8% premium to its Bitcoin holdings (mNAV 1.08), lacking a margin of safety to upgrade to BUY. MSTR's investment thesis is tied almost entirely to Bitcoin, with software operations now negligible; earnings are largely irrelevant beyond BTC metrics. However, I think we may be approaching the time to upgrade MSTR to a BUY. If its mNAV drops below 1, it would be an opportunity vs. direct Bitcoin exposure.
MSTR's Q4 loss widens on bitcoin fair-value hits, missing estimates, even as revenues rise 1.9% and subscriptions jump.
Bitcoin nearly grazed $60,000 on Thursday as investors shied away from the asset due to growing concerns over its utility.
After Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR) (formerly MicroStrategy) stock cratered 18.4% in the past week and sat 62.5% below where it traded a year ago, the stock saw a sharp reversal on Friday.
Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) shares surged on Friday following the release of the company's fourth quarter earnings report, which showed solid growth in its software and subscription business offset by a massive accounting-driven loss tied to its Bitcoin holdings. Total revenue for Q4 came in at $123 million, up roughly 2% year over year and above the Wall Street consensus of around $119 million, reflecting strength in the company's higher-margin subscription and license revenue.
Strategy NASDAQ: MSTR stock is down a little over 2% after the company reported its fourth-quarter earnings following market close on Feb. 5. The report underscored a familiar theme for MSTR investors: quarterly results are now driven far more by Bitcoin accounting than by the company's underlying software operations.
Strategy (MSTR) came out with a quarterly loss of $42.93 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $46.02. This compares to a loss of $3.2 per share a year ago.
Strategy ( NASDAQ: MSTR ) now owns 713,502 Bitcoin ( CRYPTO: BTC ) —roughly 3.4% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist.
Bitcoin's selloff means Strategy is now losing money on its holdings, which it has been accumulating for nearly six years.
When deciding whether to buy, sell, or hold a stock, investors often rely on analyst recommendations. Media reports about rating changes by these brokerage-firm-employed (or sell-side) analysts often influence a stock's price, but are they really important?