PM's fourth-quarter results are likely to show revenue and earnings growth, supported by pricing discipline and strength in smoke-free products.
Philip Morris has outperformed, delivering a 108% total return since January 2024, more than doubling the S&P 500. Momentum is driven by strong growth in Zyn nicotine pouches. Q3's $100M Americas segment hit was a one-off promotional event; nicotine pouch volumes rose 36% year-over-year.
Philip Morris earns a tentative buy rating, supported by robust margins and very strong smoke-free segment growth. The stock trades at a premium 22x earnings multiple, reflecting high market optimism for future sales and profit expansion. Regulatory risks in the near future, particularly in the EU, require close monitoring, as they could undermine the bullish thesis.
Philip Morris International is transforming into a smoke-free leader, with 41% of revenue now from smoke-free products. PMI's adjusted diluted EPS has surged 16% YTD, driven by robust SFP adoption, pricing power, and margin expansion. Shares trade at a forward P/E of 18.2, about 4% below a fair value estimate of $158, implying 14% upside through 2026.
Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) Presents at Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference 2025 Transcript
PM is upgraded to a "buy" due to strong smoke-free growth and resilient combustible segment performance. PM's smoke-free products now comprise 41.3% of sales, with ZYN, IQOS, and VEEV brands showing robust global momentum and market leadership. Unlike MO, PM continues to grow its top-line in both smoke-free and traditional segments, justifying its valuation premium over peers.
PM's meltdown from recent heights has occurred as expected, with the prior rally occurring too fast, while triggering the impacted dividend investment thesis. This is especially since the previous Zyn supply tightness has triggered its deteriorating volume market share, with the company having to engage on aggressive marketing during recent brand relaunch. PM is finally reasonably valued at estimated 3Y PEG ratio of 1.77x, aided by the richer profit margins and the robust smoke free growth prospects.
Philip Morris reported a robust set of Q3 2025 earnings, which along with a dividend increase and recent price drop could be plus points for the stock. However, the case for the stock remains weak in the short-term as the forward P/E is still high and the dividend yield isn't competitive against peers. Over the long-term, however, a Buy case gets stronger. Not only is PM's position as a leading smoke-free products providers likely to get cemented, its stock metrics improve too.
Philip Morris beats Q3 estimates as smoke-free products surge, setting the stage for solid 2025 growth and higher EPS guidance.
Philip Morris International Inc. remains a compelling Buy after a market overreaction to Q3 earnings, despite a temporary stock drop. PM's growth is driven by its dominant smoke-free products, including IQOS and Zyn, offsetting declining cigarette volumes. PM stock commands premium valuation metrics due to strong brand power, profitability, and successful transition to innovative nicotine products.
The headline numbers for Philip Morris (PM) give insight into how the company performed in the quarter ended September 2025, but it may be worthwhile to compare some of its key metrics to Wall Street estimates and the year-ago actuals.
Philip Morris International (NYSE: PM) is set to release its earnings report on Tuesday, October 21, 2025. Evaluating the previous five years of data, Philip Morris stock has shown positive one-day returns after earnings announcements in 55% of cases.