Although gold continues to struggle near $4,000, support is holding, and retail investors are showing little sign of capitulation, according to one market expert, who said the current selling reflects disciplined profit-taking rather than financial distress.
The gold market continues to struggle to hold gains above $4,100 an ounce, and although prices are consolidating at a critical support level, one major gold investor is not giving up on the rally anytime soon.
The Iran war continues to impact the gold purchases and sales of central banks and state entities, destabilizing one of the pillars of the multi-year gold rally.On Thursday, the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) announced that they had suspended selling gold in the second quarter of 2026. The fund's gold reserves totaled 178.1 tons as of the end of June, with the yellow metal representing a 31.4% share of SOFAZ's investment portfolio.
Gold prices are at session lows on Thursday morning following the release of better than expected labor market data after the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits came in below economists' forecasts.
The gold market continues to base-build at key long-term support levels even as the European Central Bank takes a neutral stance on monetary policy in the face of persistent inflation threats.
Gold was steady. While a modest dollar pullback has supported gold prices, the broader outlook for the metal remains bearish in the near term due to elevated bond yields across major economies, said Critical Metals.
Spot gold and silver prices are higher in late-afternoon U.S. trading Wednesday, as technical buying and defensive demand lifted metals despite higher crude oil prices, firmer Treasury yields and a choppy U.S. equity session. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,136.60 an ounce, up 1.47%, while spot silver was trading near $59.72, up 1.80% on the session.
"I do think we're in the beginnings or the early stages of a long-term bull market for gold," Paulson said. The billionaire investor said demand for bullion continues to broaden, led by central banks that have been adding to their reserves alongside growing private-sector interest.
Markets have experienced a dollar resurgence more than a decline in the gold price, while the Iran war – and the U.S. reaction to its inflation pressures – make gold essential insurance for investors, according to Steve Forbes, Chairman and Editor-in-Chief of Forbes Media.Forbes acknowledged that gold prices have seen a precipitous decline since hitting their late January highs near $5,600 per ounce, but said gold isn't what's actually changed.
Precious metals are moving higher as traders stay bullish.
Gold's recent 25% pullback reflects shifting macro conditions, but persistent inflation, geopolitical risks and lower real interest rates should support gold prices, while gold stocks have attractive cash flow, margins and valuations, according to Imaru Casanova, Portfolio Manager at VanEck.Casanova noted that the gold price saw elevated volatility in the first half of 2026 as it fell from the edge of $5,600 per ounce in late January to a low of $3,943 at the end of June.
The renewed chaos in the Middle East has once again reignited inflation fears, pressuring gold as investors price in the prospect of higher interest rates. However, one precious metals analyst argues the market is approaching a tipping point where investors begin worrying less about inflation and more about the stability of the global economy—a shift that could reignite safe-haven demand for bullion.