AGNC Investment Corp. (NASDAQ:AGNC ) Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call July 22, 2025 8:30 AM ET Company Participants Katherine Turlington - Investor Relations Analyst Peter Federico - President, CEO & Director and Chief Investment Officer Bernice Bell - Executive VP & CFO Conference Call Participants Douglas Harter - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division Crispin Love - Piper Sandler & Co., Research Division Trevor Cranston - Citizens JMP Securities, LLC, Research Division Bose George - Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods, Inc., Research Division Jason Weaver - JonesTrading Institutional Services, LLC, Research Division Jason Stewart - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, Research Division Eric Hagen - BTIG, LLC, Research Division Richard Shane - JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division Harsh Hemnani - Green Street Advisors, LLC, Research Division Operator Good morning, and welcome to the AGNC Investment Corp. Second Quarter 2025 Shareholder Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded.
AGNC continues aggressive share issuance. Economic returns remain negative, with high leverage amplifying risk and making sustainable profitability unlikely in current conditions. AGNC's performance during economic downturns has been poor, challenging the notion that it is recession-resistant.
AGNC misses Q2 earnings estimates as lower net interest spread and book value weigh on its performance.
AGNC Investment (AGNC) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.38 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.42 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.53 per share a year ago.
While most of Wall Street focuses on large and mega-cap stocks, as they provide a degree of safety and liquidity, many investors are limited in the number of shares they can buy.
Quarterly payers are the norm.
AGNC Investment (AGNC -0.38%), a mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT), pays a whopping forward dividend yield of 15.7%. It makes those payments on a monthly basis.
AGNC Investment Corp. currently yields above 15%. While likely not sustainable in the longer term, a yield capture opportunity seems on the cards. A July 21st earnings release could have a material impact. Combining AGNC's WALA, 30-year mortgage rates, 10-year yields, and the MOVE index suggests a commendable Q2 report might surface. The mREIT's preferred shares, especially C, E, and F convey sound yields. However, they are priced above their liquidation values, have reset options, and yield lower than the commons.
The prevailing sentiment surrounding AGNC Investment Corp. has turned quite bullish recently. I believe the bulls overlooked several key risks. The top ones in my model are the narrow/inverted yield curve spread and its use of leveage.
AGNC's Q2 results are expected to reflect higher interest income, but will book value and valuation raise investor caution? Let us find out.
AGNC Investment (AGNC) closed at $9.2 in the latest trading session, marking a -1.18% move from the prior day.
Similar preferred shares trade at materially different prices. One of these preferred shares is surprisingly expensive. One of the best BDCs is nearing an incredibly rare threshold.