ASML Holding N.V. had a great quarter looking backward, but looking forward, it's signaling big trouble, unable to confirm growth for 2026. Tariff uncertainty and U.S.-China trade tensions are the main overhangs, not fundamentals. EUV demand, particularly from AI-driven memory transitions, remains the primary growth catalyst, with ASML uniquely positioned as the sole supplier of EUV.
ASML Holding N.V.'s sequentially inline FQ3 '25 and lowered FY2025 guidance have triggered a notable correction during pre-market action, with it signaling the uncertain H2'25 tariff risks. Despite the expanded manufacturing capacity, Intel and Samsung have opted to pause/ moderate their capex plans, with much of ASML's hopes squarely placed on TSMC's shoulders. Thanks to the multi-year cloud super cycle, TSM has already raised their overall U.S. investment plans to $165B, with it likely benefiting ASML significantly as the undeniable lithography market leader.
ASML Holding N.V. delivered a double beat on Q2 earnings and revenue, continuing its streak of outperforming conservative guidance and analyst expectations. Despite strong results, shares fell due to management's guidance aligning with the midpoint rather than the high end, disappointing some investors. ASML's dominant market position, solid margin expansion, and strong long-term demand from AI and chipmakers underpin its compelling growth outlook.
Stock futures were making small moves early Wednesday, with investors watched more big-bank earnings after Bank of America (BAC) reported mixed results; bitcoin (BTCUSD) rose after legislators vowed to move cryptocurrency legislation forward; chipmakers' shares pointed lower after ASML Holding (ASML) warned that growth could stall in 2026; Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) rose after it lifted its full-year guidance and reported better-than-expected quarterly results.
The chip tool maker said it couldn't guarantee growth in 2026 due to the uncertainty caused by U.S. tariffs.
ASML shares skidded on Wednesday after the microchip equipment maker warned sales might not grow at all next year.
ASML Holding NV (NASDAQ:ASML, ETR:ASME) has warned that mounting geopolitical and economic uncertainty has clouded its outlook for 2026, despite reporting a sharp rise in second-quarter profits and strong demand for semiconductor manufacturing equipment. The Dutch technology group said it could no longer confirm growth for next year, citing what chief executive Christophe Fouquet described as “increasing uncertainty driven by macro-economic and geopolitical developments.
ASML is one of the most critical semiconductor supply chain companies in the world. In this article ASML-NL
ASML , the world's biggest supplier of computer chip-making equipment, on Wednesday reported a rise in second quarter bookings that was above market expectations.
ASML Holding (ASML) is "the machine that makes the machine," says Joe Tigay, referring to its importance in Nvidia's (NVDA) chipmaking process. While the stock closed the gap from April lows, he says outlook will continue to be key for the company.
Investors are hoping that ASML's bookings are robust enough to support its 2026 growth ambitions when the world's biggest chip-making equipment supplier reports its second-quarter earnings on Wednesday.
Upgraded ASML Holding N.V. to Buy ahead of Q2 2025. I expect further upside ahead from semiconductor recovery and strong AI chip demand. China still remains a key risk due to export controls and revenue concentration. Furthermore, China's Big Fund III may lead to a decline in sales in the long term. Additionally, long-term growth is uncertain due to slow adoption of high EUV machines and limited conviction from major fabs like TSMC.