The CEO of leading computer chip equipment maker ASML said on Tuesday he expects the United States government will continue to push for further restrictions on its exports to China.
ASML has returned to growth after revenue declines, with flat revenue expected for 2024 and growth anticipated in 2025, driven by new EUV tools. Despite a 53% QoQ drop in net bookings, ASML's backlog remains strong at €36B, supporting a revised 2025 revenue outlook of €30-35B. Valuation remains neutral in the near-term with a P/E ratio of 35x, but long-term growth prospects make ASML a reasonable multi-year investment.
Q3 2024 results showed notable growth YoY but fell short of expectations, with weak guidance adding to the negativity. ASML's revised 2025 sales guidance and reduced EUV and DUV orders highlight ongoing challenges and geopolitical tensions. Despite a challenging backdrop, ASML shares trade at a premium, making the upcoming Capital Markets Day crucial for future outlook.
We also check in with Bob Stark, author of "The Life Cycle of a CEO: The Myths and Truths of How Leaders Succeed."
It's all about tech in today's Big 3. Kenny Polcari talks about the trading opportunities that exist with ASML Holding (ASML), Palantir (PLTR), and IBM Corp. (IBM).
ASML Holdings stock dropped after it reported a weaker market recovery than previously expected.
ASML Holding's share price dropped 16% on 15 October 2024, losing €49.2 billion in market cap; investors should wait for further price corrections before buying. Despite a revenue surge in 3Q24, net bookings fell by 52%, and future growth is expected to slow, with 2024 revenue growth projected at only 2.33%. ASML is still highly dependent on China and will continue to face challenges due to stricter export controls, potentially affecting the company's sales.
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The company is currently seeing weak orders for its semiconductor manufacturing machines.
ASML Holding's stock plunged due to disappointing Q3 results and export restrictions, but historical volatility in bookings suggests a potential rebound. Despite a drop in net system bookings, ASML forecasts strong sales growth to 35 billion euros in 2025, indicating robust future prospects. The stock is now cheaper, presenting a contrarian buying opportunity, with potential for a return to a 31x earnings multiple and $875 target.
This sell-off looks like a great buying opportunity.
ASML has lost over a quarter of its value after the mixed FQ3'24 earnings call and the lowered FY2025 guidance, thanks to the tightened export controls. This is significantly worsened by the slower recovery observed in the EV, mobile, PC, and memory end-markets, and the foundries' delayed litho demand timing. Even so, the AI market trends remain robust with overall semiconductor recovery being a matter of when (not if), triggering ASML's potential for upward re-rating in the intermediate term.