EUR/USD faces downside risk, EUR/JPY tests key resistance near 186, while EUR/AUD shows signs of a bullish reversal from long.
EURAUD currency pair recently reversed up from the strong multi-month support level 1.6130 (upper border of the narrow support zone, which has been reversing the price from the middle of 2024).
EUR/AUD recovered to 1.6381 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first.
Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for consolidations above 1.6181. On the downside, decisive break of 1.6125 will resume larger fall from 1.8554.
EUR/AUD's fall from 1.6842 continues today and intraday bias stays on the downside for retesting 1.6125 low. Firm break there will resume whole down trend from 1.8554 to 1.5913 fibonacci level next.
Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains mildly on the downside for the moment. Corrective rebound from 1.6125 could have completed at 1.6842 after rejection by 55 D EMA (now at 1.6733).
If last Thursday trading was taking place below the 1.6300 level, today one euro is worth more than 1.6660 Australian dollars. The upward trend seen in recent days has been driven by a combination of factors, including:
EURAUD stuck in consolidation The Euro continued to fight back against the Aussie to prevent a further downturn, a story that has held for most of this month. A close above 1.6250 put the bears on the defensive as a move towards 1.6350 would suggest more upward pressure past 1.6400.
The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered another 25bp hike, lifting the cash rate to 4.1% as inflation risks re-emerge. Rising inflation expectations and geopolitical-driven energy prices are complicating the outlook, while a divided board highlights just how finely balanced the decision was.
The price earlier broke out of the daily down channel from last October – which accelerated the active short-term impulse wave 5 of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from October.
Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment and more consolidations could be seen. On the downside, sustained break of 138.2% projection of 1.8554 to 1.7245 from 1.8160 at 1.6351 will extend larger down trend to 161.8% projection at 1.6042 next.
In the euro area, we will receive the January unemployment data and the final February PMIs. We expect the unemployment rate to remain at 6.2% due to continued employment increases in Southern Europe.