AUD/USD Price Forecast: Remains above 0.7150 to test nine-day EMA barrier
AUD/USD enters the week under pressure after weak Australian employment data crushed RBA hike expectations and widened the focus on US inflation and Treasury yields. While the Aussie dollar continues to hold above 71c for now, fading bullish momentum, softer labour market conditions and widening yield spreads suggest risks remain tilted towards another leg lower.
AUD/USD fell to 0.7076 last week but quickly recovered after drawing support from 0.7101. Initial bias stays neutral this week first.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Stuck between key SMAs, RSI turns bearish
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Holds losses below 0.7150 as descending wedge emerges
AUD/USD is continuing to shrug off the sharp curtailment in hawkish RBA pricing seen following Australia's weak April employment report. That's because the Aussie remains more closely tied to equities and volatility than domestic rate expectations right now, as shown in the correlation matrix below.
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AUD/USD Price Forecast: Picks up above 0.7120 after finding support in the 0.7100 area
Australian unemployment is already running above the RBA's forecast path, forcing traders to rethink whether this month's rat.
The confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair added volatility, but today's trading is mainly driven by a sharp drop in the US Dollar.
The Australian dollar is attempting to stabilise ahead of today's labour force report, with traders weighing resilient domestic data, hawkish RBA minutes and shifting risk sentiment. While AUD/USD remains vulnerable to further downside if the US dollar strengthens, both AUD/USD and AUD/JPY have caught a bid into the jobs report as markets continue to price a high probability of another RBA rate hike in June.
Forex Market update: AUD/USD accelerates its upward momentum as global risk appetite returns and crude oil tumbles. With institutional focus shifting to the Australian jobs data and its implications for the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy path, explore our comprehensive technical breakdown of the Aussie's key structural levels.