Record short positions in Australian dollar futures have emerged just as AUD/USD tests the neckline of a potential head-and-shoulders top. While weak employment figures have dampened RBA hike expectations and strengthened the bearish case, stretched positioning and tentative bullish divergences suggest bears should remain cautious.
Australian Dollar Recovers Above $0.69 vs US Dollar After Jobs Shock Cuts RBA Hike Bets Crédit Agricole retains its Australian Dollar recovery forecast, arguing that weaker jobs have yet to remove the RBA's case for tackling inflation. The Australian Dollar-to-US Dollar exchange rate recovered to US$0.6942 on Friday evening, up.
0.6900: A key level to watch for AUD/USD amid Head and Shoulders formation
AUD/USD was hammered on Thursday, underperforming against all major currencies despite broad-based weakness in the US dollar, undermined by another very soft Australian employment report that compounded the effects of widespread risk aversion earlier in the week.
AUD/USD found sellers after Elliott Wave double three pattern
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Faces selling pressure due to weak Australian employment data
AUD/USD breaks channel support after weak jobs data: Is wave five lower next?
The Australian dollar is showing signs of vulnerability against the US dollar and Japanese yen, with bearish inverted hammer candles emerging on both AUD/USD and AUD/JPY. A potential swing high near 70c on AUD/USD adds to the downside risks ahead of Australia's employment report, particularly if unemployment rises faster than the RBA expects.
Australian dollar technical analysis shows AUD/USD rebounding off confluence support, with its 2025 uptrend still intact on a weekly close basis. Michael Boutros, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst, walks through the Australian dollar on the weekly, daily and four-hour charts.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Extends recovery to near 20-day EMA
AUD/USD is coiling in a compressed structure ahead of tonight's US CPI report, with the underlying details providing a clear catalyst for a potential breakout.
AUD/USD continues to struggle below 70c despite hawkish RBA minutes keeping another rate hike in play. NAB business confidence fell for a third month, while unemployment rose to 4.6%, giving the RBA room to wait.