AUD/USD has pushed firmly above the .7200 level to trade at its highest since early May, continuing to benefit from buoyant risk appetite, hawkish RBA pricing and continued weakness in the US dollar, particularly against Asian currency names. With the technicals aligning with the fundamentals, the topside break will have bulls eyeing a potential retest of the year-to-date highs in the days ahead.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Consolidates around 0.7200; bullish potential seems intact
A hot Nonfarm Payrolls report saw traders reprice the potential for a September Fed hike, making this week's CPI and PPI figures all the more important. Fed funds futures are now back above a 60% probability of a 25bp hike in two weeks, after 162k jobs were added compared with the 53k expected.
A hot Nonfarm Payrolls report saw traders reprice the potential for a September Fed hike, making this week's CPI and PPI figures all the more important. Fed funds futures are now back above a 60% probability of a 25bp hike in two weeks, after 162k jobs were added compared with the 53k expected.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: On track to revisit four-year high near 0.7280
The Aussie enters this week with genuine hawkish backing after Australia's Q2 GDP surprised sharply to the upside, pushing the market-implied probability of a September RBA hike from 48% to 57%, with a November move now more than fully priced. Governor Bullock's board has already flagged upside inflation risks tied to Middle East-driven energy costs, and rising Australian bond yields, which touched their highest level since April 2011 this week, are only reinforcing that hawkish backdrop.
The Australian dollar held firm today, September 3rd, as investors adjusted their RBA and Federal Reserve expectations for the year. The AUD/USD pair was trading at 0.7165, a few points below the August high of 0.7207.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Slides to over one-week low; 0.7125 confluence holds the key
Australian GDP growth remained modest in Q2, but did little to challenge expectations for further RBA tightening. With AUD/USD already retracing alongside a firmer US dollar, attention now turns to ISM and NFP for the next directional catalyst.
The Australian dollar reversed off a multi-year resistance zone after an eight-week advance, leaving U.S. jobs data to set the next move. Michael Boutros, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst, walks through the weekly, daily and four-hour charts and explains where the uptrend stays intact and what would signal it is breaking.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Rising 20-day EMA backs more upside
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Holds above 0.7150 on soft USD; Fed/Iran risks curb upside