The Australian dollar faces a pivotal week as traders weigh the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate decision alongside rising geopolitical risks and surging oil prices. While the Aussie has held up relatively well despite risk-off flows, technical signals and positioning data suggest momentum may be turning.
The US 10-year yield and the US dollar are in focus for Friday trading.
AUD/USD retreats as US Dollar strengthens on inflation fears, ignoring mixed data
AUD/USD retreats to 0.7076 on March 13 2026 as Hormuz blockade panic triggers a USD safe-haven surge. Despite the 1% dip discover if the 78% RBA hike probability and a looming 4.10% cash rate can propel the Aussie back toward 0.7185.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Retreats to near 0.7050, constructive view prevails
AUD/USD fell 1% + on Thursday with the pair reacting to a resurgent US Dollar as safe haven demand intensified due to Middle East tensions. AUD/USD was trading at a multi-year peak and thus a retracement may be welcomed in some quarters.
AUD/USD retreats from a multi-year peak due to USD strength and geopolitical tensions. However, hawkish RBA action, technical support at the 100/200-day MAs suggest bulls may limit the downside ahead of critical US PCE data.
AUD/USD was hammered on Thursday as markets sharply unwound expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, leaving front-end US rate pricing as the dominant driver for the pair this week. After three failed attempts above the February 2023 high of .7160 and a bearish engulfing candle on the daily tivk, the technical picture now points to the risk of a deeper retracement, although momentum indicators are yet to signal a decisive bearish shift.
AUD/USD turns south, trades below 0.7100
AUD/USD declines as geopolitical risks boost USD, RBA rate hike expectations persist
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