AUD/USD enters a potentially pivotal stretch within striking distance of 72c, with Australian CPI, US inflation and Jackson Hole putting RBA and Fed policy expectations firmly in focus.
The AUD/USD continues to grind higher - as it has done so ever since risk assets bottomed back in April 2025. The Aussie has benefitted from rising metals prices and a strong Chinese yuan.
TL;DR: AUD/USD barely moved on RBA minutes that confirmed, but didn't change, the existing hawkish-hold debate — the real signal was the Board's openness to pre-emptive tightening based on monthly data alone, which keeps a September hike live even without the Q3 quarterly CPI, making Wednesday's July print the more consequential test.
Falling US Treasury yields, weakness in energy prices, and avoidance of a worst-case scenario when it came to the so-called economic D-Day sanctions on Iran implemented by the United States sounds like a toxic mix for the US dollar. But it proved to be anything but on Monday, with the DXY managing to rally.
Bulls cracked a double Fibo barrier at 0.7180 (Fibo 76.4% retracement of 0.7277/0.6865 / Fibo 161.8% expansion of the third wave of five-wave cycle from 0.6865, June 30 low) where stronger headwinds could be expected, as daily studies are overbought.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Aussie eases from 12-week highs with bulls still in command
The Australian dollar not only rallied for an eighth consecutive week – its best run since December 2020 – but the move also accelerated to mark its strongest week in 18. AUD/USD now sits within striking distance of 72c at an 11-week high.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Bulls target YTD high after breakout
Aussie is pressing higher after clearing a major downtrend barrier in late-July, reinforcing the constructive shift in the near-term technical picture. The advance has remained well supported within the rising trend structure as momentum accelerates toward overbought territory, but buyers are now approaching the next major resistance confluence.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Bulls eye 0.7200 as RSI nears overbought territory
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Hits fresh high since June as bulls eye gains beyond 0.7150
AUD/USD holds virtually steady near a two-month high around 0.711