The carry traders' favourite, AUD/JPY's seven-session winning streak met headwinds on Thursday, as US-Japan intervention talk cools.
The US dollar strengthened against commodity currencies following the release of July US inflation data. The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 3.4%, exactly in line with forecasts and down from the previous 3.5%, while prices rose by 0.1% month-on-month.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Struggles to extend rally above 0.7100
The Aussie Dollar formed a base above 0.6980 against the US Dollar. AUD/USD started a fresh increase above the 0.7000 and 0.7025 resistance levels.
AUD/USD outlook: RBA hawkishness meets the US CPI test
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Extends the range play near 0.7050; bulls await 50% Fibo. breakout
RBA holds at 4.35%: What AUD/USD needs next
Overnight, the RBA held its cash rate steady at 4.35%, as widely expected after June's inflation data came in softer than forecast at 3.8% headline. Yet the accompanying statement struck a notably cautious tone, warning that trimmed mean inflation remains elevated and largely unchanged from the March quarter, with oil and related commodities still trading above pre-conflict levels due to the ongoing Middle East crisis.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Aussie spikes down sub-0.7050 as RBA's Bullock speaks
The RBA held its cash rate at 4.35% as widely expected and maintained its hawkish bias in the statement. It arguably had to do so to help manage inflation expectations.
The Australian dollar enters the week on a six-week winning streak, but the rally could face an important test from the RBA and US CPI. Markets have priced out a near-term RBA hike following softer Q2 inflation, leaving the US dollar and incoming US data increasingly important for AUD/USD.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Flat lines below mid-0.7000s/100-SMA as bulls await US NFP