The Moment Of Truth For BDC Dividend Investors Is Close
As a structural BDC bull I have to admit that the period of BDCs consistently surprising us on the upside has come to an end. Many lower quality BDCs have already cut their dividends to sync their cash flows with less favorable private credit lending environment. I would say that the moment of truth for high quality BDCs is also very close, where we will see how really durable their base dividends are.
Goldman Sachs BDC: Huge Dividend Yield, Yet Mediocre Overall Choice
Goldman Sachs BDC stock is in a long-term downtrend, trading near all-time lows, signaling fundamental issues despite its high dividend yield. Declining net investment income has led to a significant dividend cut, further diminishing GSBD's attractiveness. The clumsy approach management took in announcing an extra special dividend in order to push higher the total dividend yield does not seem a sustainable strategy.
Kayne Anderson BDC: Continuing To Show Its Potential For Growth
I maintain a buy rating on Kayne Anderson BDC due to its attractive financials, strong distribution coverage, and undervalued market price despite recent growth. KBDC's portfolio has grown impressively, with a fair value of $1.99B, and maintains a high starting dividend yield of 9.7%. The portfolio is well-structured with 98% first lien and 100% floating rate investments, providing both income generation and defensive measures.
BDC Weekly Review: JPMorgan Muscling In On Private Credit Turf
We take a look at the action in business development companies through the last week of February and highlight some of the key themes we are watching. BDCs remained flat amid volatile risk sentiment, with TCPC underperforming due to a poor quarter and dividend cut, while February saw slight overall gains for the sector. JPMorgan's $50bn direct lending initiative and merger of its commercial and investment banks could increase competition for BDCs in corporate lending.
Goldman Sachs BDC: Change In Dividend Structure Not A Deal-Changer
Goldman Sachs BDC has revised its dividend policy and fee structure, reducing the regular dividend but adding supplemental dividends to maintain overall payouts. Despite a 29% "cut" in the regular dividend, the BDC will pay supplemental dividends. The BDC's non-accrual percentage has decreased slightly in Q4'24, but the dividend safety margin has been reduced due to underperforming investments.
An Important Warning For BDC Investors
Why BDCs may be entering a dangerous phase. Avoid these risks before it's too late. One BDC stands out as a safe bet, and is my top pick right now.
Belden: More Upbeat On This Connection Player
Belden has improved its strategic focus and organic growth in 2024, making it a more attractive investment despite past execution issues. The company's revenues are split between Industrial Automation Solutions and Enterprise Solutions, with the former being both larger and more profitable. Despite a challenging time, Belden's debt reduction and strategic acquisitions position it well for future growth, even if an $8 earnings per share target is not met this year.
New Mountain Finance: Not The BDC For Me, Strong Sell
Adding Business Development Company assets post-Covid became crucial; I currently hold Ares Capital and Hercules Capital for their high yields and positive returns. New Mountain Finance specializes in defensive growth industries, but its EPS for 2024 is 30% less than in 2017. NMFC's dividends haven't grown over the past decade, and its Book Value has decreased, earning it a Strong Sell rating.
Crescent Capital BDC: Q4 Earnings Showing Signs Of Weakness (Rating Downgrade)
Crescent Capital BDC is downgraded due to a declining NII, and a less attractive discount to NAV. However, I don't see a reason for existing shareholders to sell. Despite recent weaknesses, CCAP maintains a strong dividend yield of 10.4%, supported by a healthy coverage rate and supplemental distributions for the next three quarters. The portfolio's high industry diversification and 90% first lien debt structure provide defensive measures, but higher interest rates challenge borrower performance.
Goldman Sachs BDC: Structural Changes Provide Flexibility, But Investors Should Remain Cautious
Goldman Sachs BDC has underperformed despite a favorable interest rate environment, with a 35.26% decline and a recent 29% dividend cut. Structural changes, including a reduced incentive fee and a new dividend policy, offer flexibility but credit quality remains a concern. High non-accruals, declining NAV, and increased PIK income signal potential trouble, warranting caution for dividend investors.
Kayne Anderson BDC: Still Under The Radar, Still My Top 1 BDC
I issued a bullish thesis on Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc. in October 2024, making it my largest BDC holding. KBDC now consumes ~25% of my BDC portfolio, which I constructed for transparency and easy tracking for Seeking Alpha readers. Despite a recent dip post-Q4 2024 earnings (really driven by sector-wide decrease), KBDC's performance has been solid, aligning with the broader BDC market.
BDC Dividend Cut Party Has Begun, Here Are Next 2 In Line
BDC Dividend Cut Party Has Begun, Here Are Next 2 In Line
