Demand concerns and prospects for a supply surplus in 2025 have weighed on oil prices. We've revised lower our Brent forecast for the rest of the year.
Oil futures were steady early Friday as investors awaited the U.S. August jobs report, but were on track for a large weekly slide on worries over the outlook for demand.
Crude oil steadies after sharp losses. OPEC+ delays output hikes, but demand concerns in the U.S. and China overshadow supply cuts and inventory draws.
A major U.S. crude inventory withdrawal and OPEC+ decisions shape oil's outlook, while technical indicators suggest potential bullish breakouts for natural gas.
After hitting a new trend low of $69.37, crude oil faces increasing downward pressure, with key support at $69.18 and potential for further losses toward $67.82 and beyond.
OPEC+ has agreed to delay a planned oil output increase for October and November, the producers group said on Thursday after crude prices hit their lowest in nine months, adding that it could further pause or reverse the hikes if needed.
On Wednesday, Citi stated that if OPEC+ doesn't cut production further, the average price of oil could fall to $60 per barrel in 2025, driven by reduced demand and increased supply from non-OPEC countries.
The agreement means that the market is less worried about oversupply heading into the fall.
EIA natural gas storage build of +13 Bcf missed analyst estimates.
Members of the OPEC+ oil alliance have delayed plans to hike production by a scheduled 180,000 barrels per day in October, according to two OPEC+ sources, who could only speak anonymously due to the sensitivity of talks. The increases were part of a plan to gradually return a broader 2.2 million barrels per day to the market over the following months.
The oil market continues to see selling pressure, as we are trying to sort out whether or not the bottom will hold. The market has been range bound for some time now, and we are at extreme lows, and testing a potential break down of the overall trend.
Natural gas futures test key pivot at $2.145, with EIA report expected to spark volatility. Mild weather limits demand, but LNG exports provide price support.