Those events “could determine the global market mood for the rest of the month, and a good part of summer,” observes Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.
In the short term, the outlook for oil prices remains bullish, supported by strong demand projections and declining U.S. inventories.
Oil prices have rallied this morning despite the International Energy Agency's warning that the world will face a "major surplus" of the commodity by the end of the 2020s. Slowing demand caused by the transition to greener energy and an uptick in production are expected to cause a rise in oil supplies, the IEA said.
U.S. oil inventories dropped by 2.4 million barrels, boosting oil prices over 0.25%. Could this signal further gains ahead?
Oil prices ticked higher on Wednesday on upbeat global demand views from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and OPEC.
Crude oil surged above key resistance levels, reaching a new high of 78.52, and may continue its bullish trend towards the 200-Day MA at 79.96.
The discussion revolves around the confusion regarding OPEC's recent announcements.
OPEC has stuck to its robust oil demand forecasts for 2024 and 2025 as the cartel sees steady global economic growth ahead. Crude oil rallied more than 2% Monday and has now recovered most of the losses from last week.
Brent crude oil is holding steady at 81.50 USD per barrel on Tuesday, following a significant surge of over 2.5% the previous day. The price increase was driven by optimistic market expectations about fuel demand this coming summer and news that the US government is seizing the opportunity to replenish its strategic oil reserves at relatively low prices, with a particular focus on oil priced around 79 USD per barrel.
OPEC on Tuesday stuck to its forecast for relatively strong growth in global oil demand in 2024, despite lower than expected use in the first quarter, saying travel and tourism would support consumption in the second half of the year.
Oil dips to $77.69 as investors anticipate U.S. inflation data and the impact of Saudi crude export reductions.
Oil prices rose on Tuesday, extending the previous day's rally on hopes of higher seasonal fuel demand and potential U.S. crude purchases for its petroleum reserve, though gains were capped by a firmer dollar.