Executive insights from CVX confirm that the floating shadow inventory used to mask the global deficit is officially exhausted. Comprehensive modeling from XOM indicates that crude is coiled to violently spike toward $150–$160 per barrel within weeks as inventory levels clear out. Even if the Strait of Hormuz opens tomorrow, the physical supply will remain constrained.
President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that a deal to end the war with Iran will be signed on Sunday. He added that the Strait of Hormuz will be opened immediately after the signing.
Pakistan said an interim US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be finalized within 24 hours, raising expectations that the sides may be nearing a broader agreement after recent skirmishes near the strategic waterway. Bloomberg News State Department Reporter Eric Martin and Jerusalem Reporter Dan Williams joined David Gura and Christina Ruffini on Bloomberg This Weekend to discuss.
The prospects for a peace deal, falling Chinese demand and some workarounds to the Strait of Hormuz closure have helped to stop the crude market from going haywire.
Since the start of the Iran war and Tehran's announcement that the Strait of Hormuz was "closed", the market has grappled to put a figure on lost crude supply and to predict the price of oil.
Goldman Sachs on Thursday lowered its 2027 average Brent oil price forecast to $80 a barrel, citing stronger supply growth and persistent demand weakness, even as it warned prices could swing sharply under different geopolitical scenarios.
Oil prices fell on Friday, extending losses from the previous session after U.S. President Donald Trump canceled plans to strike Iran, reducing fears of an escalation of hostilities following tit-for-tat attacks earlier in the week.
Crude oil breaks below a symmetrical triangle and key moving averages, signaling emerging downside risk as multiple support zones and Fibonacci levels come into play.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cut its oil demand estimates for this year as the U.S. blockade on Iran and near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to curb production from major Gulf producers.
Russia's seaborne oil product exports fell by 0.2% on a daily basis in May from April to 8.016 million metric tons, according to industry sources and Reuters calculations.
Oil product stocks in Asia's key trading hub Singapore fell to their lowest levels in nearly 13 years, led by a sharp drawdown in residual fuel inventories as the Middle East conflict continues, official data showed on Thursday.
Three months into the Iran war, the oil market is coming to grips with an unexpected new reality: China, the world's largest importer, needs much less fuel than previously thought.