Oil's backwardation hints at calm - but is the market too complacent? ETFs may face mixed moves as geopolitical risks and supply damage linger.
Crude oil races to the upside after hardline comments in Iran sent traders running to hit the “buy” button. This is a market that is nowhere near calming down.
It would be about double what oil prices are today. And the damage to the global economy would be unimaginable.
Trump said he was pausing “the period of Energy Plant destruction by 10 Days to Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 P.M. Eastern Time.
Asian countries are the first to experience shortages as a result of the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz but within six weeks the whole world will feel the pinch, JPMorgan calculates
Traders in the futures market shifted the probability of a rate increase by the end of 2026 to 52% on Friday, the first time the reading has crossed the 50% threshold, according to the CME Group. The move comes with global benchmark crude prices topping $110, a development that combines with other developments this week that signal inflation is a growing problem.
Prediction market Polymarket is pricing a 62% probability that US military forces will enter Iran by April 30, with traders having staked more than $35 million on the question, as the conflict that has already sent oil prices to crisis highs threatens to push them to levels never seen before. The market, which resolves as "yes" only if active US personnel physically enter Iranian territory for operational purposes, shows a sharp escalation in implied probability over longer time horizons, with the December 31 contract pricing a 71% likelihood, up 22 percentage points in recent days.
The economy is better suited to absorb higher energy costs, says Jim Paulsen.
Tehran said the Strait of Hormuz has now been closed
Oil crept higher and a cautious premarket stock recovery collapsed as nervous traders doubted the likelihood of a near-term resolution to the Middle East conflict.
Crude oil futures turn higher as war risk supports prices. Tight supply and falling inventory strengthen the oil outlook despite brief easing headlines
Oil fell in early trade after President Trump said he's pausing attacks on Iran's energy sector for another 10 days as per Iran's request.