Wednesday's July CPI and really July's Core CPI print will likely generate the biggest market reaction (if any) on Wednesday, August 14th. The general consensus is that Core CPI and Core PCE (July PCE due out August 30th '24) will continue to decline. The forward 4-quarter estimate ended this week at $258.77, down from its early July '24 peak of $261.39 and down from last week's $259.51.
The biotech sector has significantly lagged behind the overall market and its leading sector, technology, year-to-date. However, following the release of the CPI data on Thursday, the biotech sector, represented by the iShares Biotechnology ETF NASDAQ: IBB, experienced a significant breakout above a multi-year resistance level.
As has been the case for the past few months the stock market was able to survive a series of key economic reports without collapsing. The better-than-expected CPI report on Thursday pushed yields lower and stocks higher which could create a different environment for the rest of the year.
U.S. equity markets climbed to record highs, while benchmark interest rates dipped to four-month lows as investors rotated from high-flying growth stocks into beaten-down value names following a cooler-than-expected CPI report. Headline CPI declined 0.1% month-over-month, which dragged the annual increase to below 3% for the first time since March 2021, while CPI ex-Shelter is again below the Fed's 2% target. Combined with recent softness in employment data and relatively dovish Fed commentary, markets now see at least two Fed rate cuts this year, with September now viewed as a near-lock.
Small-cap stocks have roared back following favorable CPI data, helping break months of back-and-forth action. Lower interest rates are better for small-caps, helping explain why recent CPI data, which supports the notion of rate cuts, has them displaying bullish behavior.
The Inflation Rate came in better than expected for a soft landing, but the S&P and Nasdaq posted their worst trading day in two months.
Gold futures climbed sharply on Thursday, with prices trading close to fresh record highs, as traders viewed a report that showed cooling inflation as “ammo” for the Federal Reserve to use if it cuts interest rates this year.
Today brings us the slimmest Inflation Rate we've seen since March 2021 -- back when inflation was going the opposite direction.
Ernest Hoffman is a Crypto and Market Reporter for Kitco News. He has over 15 years of experience as a writer, editor, broadcaster and producer for media, educational and cultural organizations.
The current trend in monetary policy and sustained gold demand indicate the ongoing bull market in XAU/USD could persist.
Major inflation reports, combined with some of the top companies at the front end of Q2 earnings season, will bring us to a new level of understanding.
Record Gains For S&P 500 And Nasdaq Highlight Market Strength