High mortgage rates and slow demand have been putting a lid on a homebuilder rebound the past year, but there are early signs of a rally. Under the pressure of public calls to ease monetary policy, a capitulating Fed could give the industry a push, which opens trading possibilities in a couple of leveraged ETFs.
Some initial June gloom might give way to sunshine for homebuilders for the rest of the summer (or not). While nobody has a crystal ball to accurately determine what will happen, the homebuilding sector will be an interesting watch this summer.
Top Performing Leveraged/Inverse ETFs Last Week These were last week's top performing leveraged and inverse ETFs. Note that because of leverage, these kinds of funds can move quickly.
The economy continues to hum along with a relatively healthy jobs report. That should keep real estate traders appeased given the correlation with low unemployment and housing demand, but cautious optimism is warranted.
Persistent inflation could keep the Federal Reserve from cutting rates further, which could hamper the real estate industry. With uncertainty abounding, it's helpful to have a pair of ETFs that address both the bearish and bullish scenarios.
The Direxion Daily Real Estate Bull 3X Shares ETF seeks to deliver 300% of the return of the IXRE index which is heavily tilted to large-capitalization US REITs. I expect underlying IXRE constituents to deliver a high-single-digit total return over the next few years, driven predominantly by current cash flows but also some valuation gains. The leverage employed by the DRN should translate these gains into a low-double-digit return for investors after fees.
Investors could make a short-term bullish play on the rate-sensitive sectors as these spaces are likely to see huge gains in the wake of rate cuts.
In a six-month span, the Direxion Daily Real Estate Bull 3X Shares (DRN) is up over 30% and could see more upside ahead as interest rates start to decline. The residential real estate market could soon pick up as interest rates are starting to head downward.